Fri.Feb 17, 2023

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10 Friday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My end-of-week morning train WFH reads: • It’s a Richcession, Not a Recession. Most economic downturns hit lower-income Americans hardest, but this time is different. The stock market’s winners and losers will be different too. Here’s your investing playbook. ( Wall Street Journal ) • From Math Camp to Handcuffs: FTX’s Downfall Was an Arc of Brotherhood and Betrayal : Gary Wang and Sam Bankman-Fried are offering dueling accounts of the FTX fiasco and of who’s ultimately to blame. ( Bloomberg ) s

Math 275
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Friday links: an abysmal investing strategy

Abnormal Returns

Markets European natural gas prices are back down to Q4 2021 levels. (ft.com) Zero day options are growing in popularity. (marketwatch.com) Strategy Copycat investing is blind alley. (rationalwalk.com) Share buybacks aren't good or bad, they just are. (wsj.com) Fund management With other mutual funds companies adopt Vanguard's approach to ETFs? (morningstar.com) Index funds now own more Tesla ($TSLA) shares than Elon Musk.

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (Feb 18-19)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of “Weekend Reading For Financial Planners” - this week’s edition kicks off with the news that the SEC is proposing to expand the adviser custody rule beyond securities and funds to cover all assets in a client’s portfolio, including private securities, real estate, derivatives, and cryptoassets.

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Podcast links: a new conservatism

Abnormal Returns

Podcasting Jim O'Shaughnessy talks with Dwarkesh Patel of 'The Lunar Society' podcast about how to become a better podcaster. (infiniteloopspodcast.com) Matt Russell and Dom Cooke talks podcasting with Eric Nuzum is the co-founder of Magnificent Noise (joincolossus.com) Private equity Patrick O'Shaughnessy talks with Dan Rose of Coatue Ventures about how the best founders operate.

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Register Now: Sneak Peek Into Close Automation SkyStem Web Demo

Technology is rapidly changing the way accountants perform and manage month-end activities. Spreadsheets, email, and shared drives no longer have to slow us down. Join us as we present a "sneak peek" recorded demo of SkyStem's month-end close solution – ART. In under four weeks, your team can start reaping the benefits of month-end close automation by vastly reducing spreadsheets, cut down on reconciliation work, speed up the month-end close, and better manage your remote team.

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RWM Is Coming to Chicago!

The Big Picture

 ` The Ritholtz Wealth Management crew is coming to Chicago! During the week of March 6th, we are seeing prospective clients and advisors in the Chicago area! Come chat with Josh Brown, Mike Batnick, Ben Carlson, Bill Sweet, Kris Venne, Tadas Viskanta, and three of our Chicago area advisors. Spots are limited, so if you want in, please contact us ASAP.

More Trending

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Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Up 70% YoY; New Listings Down 13% YoY

Calculated Risk

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released today from Chief Economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Feb 11, 2023 • Active inventory growth continued to climb with for-sale homes up 70% above one year ago. Inventories of for-sale homes rose again, on par with the yearly gains we saw last week.

Sales 145
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Buy & Hold is Dead, Long Live Buy & Hold

A Wealth of Common Sense

As a staunch proponent of thinking and acting for the long-term as an investor, the following chart from Ben Laidler at eToro cuts deep: The average holding period for an individual stock in the U.S. is now just 10 months, down from 5 years back in the 1970s. The average mutual fund holding period is longer at two-and-a-half years but that still feels way too low for my taste.

Marketing 128
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Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 8.7% Compared to Same Week in 2019

Calculated Risk

From CoStar: STR: US Hotel Rates Maintain Strength in First Full Week of February U.S. hotel performance increased from the previous week, according to STR‘s latest data through Feb. 11. Feb. 5-11, 2023 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*): • Occupancy: 57.8% (-8.7%) • Average daily rate (ADR): $150.97 (+13.4%) • Revenue per available room (RevPAR): $87.21 (+3.6%) *Due to the pandemic impact, STR is measuring recovery against comparable time periods from 2019.

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CB LEI: Down 0.3% in January, Recession Signal Continues

Advisor Perspectives

The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for January was down 0.3% from the December's final figure of 110.6, marking the 10th consecutive MoM decline. Today's reading was consistent with the Investing.com forecast.

Economics 105
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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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: U.S. stocks open lower as investors weigh future path of Fed rate hikes

MarketWatch

U.S. stocks opened lower Friday, as investors continue to weigh what stronger-than-expected inflation data from earlier this week will mean for the Federal Reserve’s future path of interest rate hikes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.4% soon after the opening bell, while the S&P 500 fell 0.5% and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.7%, according to FactSet data, at last check.

Economy 98
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Middle-Class Hourly Wages as of January 2023

Advisor Perspectives

I've updated this series to include the January release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $48,183, down 7.9% from 50-plus years ago. Hourly earnings are below their all-time high after adjusting for inflation.

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: Tesla said to consider buying Canadian miner Sigma Lithium: report

MarketWatch

Tesla Inc. TSLA is considering buying Canadian miner Sigma Lithium Corp. CA:SGML, Bloomberg News reported late Friday, citing people familiar with the talks. Tesla has been talking with advisers about a potential bid, and Sigma Lithium is one of “multiple mining options” being explored, the report said. Lithium is a key metal in the making of electric-vehicle batteries, and last month General Motors Co.GM announced a $650 million investment in miner Lithium Americas Corp.

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RIA Roundup: Mariner Wealth Advisors Acquires Arizona Tax Practice

Wealth Management

The RIA space was on fire this week—eight acquisitions were announced, along with three newly created roles, one rebranding and a new head of NAPFA.

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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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Coronavirus tally: Moderna flu vaccine trial falls short on one goal, sending stock down

MarketWatch

Moderna Inc. stock was down 6.6% premarket Friday, after the COVID vaccine maker said a trial of a flu vaccine candidate failed to meet one of its goals. "While we did not achieve non-inferiority for the Influenza B strains which are more frequent in younger populations, we have already updated the vaccine that we believe could improve immune responses against Influenza B and will seek to quickly confirm those improvements in an upcoming clinical study thanks to the agility of our mRNA platform,

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During Challenging Times, Trust the Basics

Wealth Management

Periods of uncertainty are not times to reclaim decision-making responsibilities that have been delegated, become too reliant on consensus or over-innovate.

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: Harley-Davidson raises dividend to 16.50 cents

MarketWatch

A previous version of this article gave an incorrect amount for the company’s previous dividend. It has been corrected. Harley-Davidson Inc. HOG late Friday said its board has authorized a dividend of 16.50 cents a share for the first quarter, from 15.75 cents a share. The dividend is payable March 20 to shareholders of record as of March 3. Shares of Harley-Davidson were flat in the extended session Friday after ending the regular trading day up 1.4%.

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The WealthStack Podcast: Is it the Year of Advisor Productivity?

Wealth Management

The chief marketing officer of Docupace details what to look for when introducing new technology to a business to fill gaps in productivity.

Marketing 108
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Transforming Lending: Understanding the Power of Digital Platforms

Digital platforms can provide you with plenty of solutions, yet many are still intimidated by them. It's time to end that worry and embrace what could make a major difference for your bank. Understanding how they work and how to best utilize them for your banks is key toward success. In this article, Biz2X breaks down all things digital platforms, including the many advantages of embracing them.

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It’s Always Darkest Just Before Dawn

Alpha Architect

Wide divergences between the valuations of cheap stocks relative to expensive stocks have preceded significant outperformance for value over the subsequent decade, as shown in this figure. <strong>It’s Always Darkest Just Before Dawn</strong> was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.

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Private Wealth Management Adds $1B US Bank Expats

Wealth Management

Jeff Steiner and Tim Durbin join the growing RIA focused on providing expanded private banking services in a fiduciary setting.

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Q1 GDP Tracking: Around 1.5%

Calculated Risk

From BofA: On net,this week’s data initiated our 1Q US GDP tracking estimate at 1.5% q/q saar , somewat above our official forecast of 1.0%. The data also reduced our 4Q US GDP tracking estimate from 3.2% q/q saar to 2.9%. [Feb 17th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: We left our Q1 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +1.4% (qoq ar) and our domestic final sales forecast unchanged at +1.9%.

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Goldman’s 3.75% Marcus Rate Shows How Banks Are Courting Savers

Wealth Management

The popular consumer bank has been raising the interest paid on its popular accounts as the yield on 10-year Treasuries surges.

Banking 95
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Your New & Improved Month-End Close Process Is Not So Far Out of Reach!

All accounting teams know what it is like to dread the inevitable month-end scaries. If there was a way to feel less burdened and maybe even a little enthusiastic to work on your month-end close and reconciliation process, would you do it? No, don't answer that, of course you would! Automate your month-end close process by up to 40% with SkyStem's ART and see how much more alive you feel!

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Using Philanthropic Giving in Your Estate Plan

Advisor Perspectives

There are several ways to include philanthropic giving in your estate plan. Here are five common options.

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Former NBA Player Paul Pierce Will Pay $1.4M in Crypto Case

Wealth Management

The SEC says Pierce failed to disclose that he was paid more than $244,000 to promote the EMAX token, offered by EthereumMax, on Twitter.

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: Vince McMahon’s asking price for WWE is $9 billion: report

MarketWatch

Vince McMahon wants up to $9 billion for World Wrestling Entertainment Inc. WWE , the media company he ran for decades and returned to this year to sell, according to a Bloomberg report, citing people familiar with the matter. The company has received offers, the report said. WWE declined comment. Among the list of potential buyers includes Endeavor Group Holdings Inc., owner of Ultimate Fighting Championship.

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S&P 500 Snapshot: Lowest Close of the Month

Advisor Perspectives

The S&P 500 declined further on Friday, closing at 4,079.09, a 0.3% drop from Thursday. This is lowest close for the index this month. The index is up 6.24% YTD and is 14.96% below its record close.

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The Blueprint for a Customer-Centric Digital Lending Experience

Creating a winning digital lending experience requires plenty of focus on the needs of customers and more. Biz2X Chief Product Officer Aaron Traub covers everything from how to create such an experience, areas to hone in on, pitfalls to avoid, and plenty more in this insightful article. Discover how to utilize new technology without alienating existing customers, what to emphasize when working on your platform, and how to utilize the data at your disposal while not becoming overly reliant on it.

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: Deere stock bounces after profit more than doubles, beats expectations by wide margin

MarketWatch

Shares of Deere & Co. DE bounced 3.0% in premarket trading Friday, after the maker of agriculture, construction and forestry equipment reported fiscal first-quarter profit and revenue that beat expectations by wide margins, with all segments seeing both higher shipment volumes and higher pricing. Net income for the quarter to Jan. 29 more than doubled, to $1.96 billion, or $6.55 a share, from $903 million, or $2.92 a share, in the year-ago period.

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Investors Spooked By Buffett’s Quick TSMC Sale

Validea

Mere months after Berkshire Hathaway bought a $5 billion stake in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the Warren Buffett-helmed conglomerate slashed its holdings in the tech company by 86%, reports an article in Bloomberg. The abrupt about-face from Buffett, who’s famously said his favorite holding period is forever, has dampened investor sentiment towards TSMC, and the stock fell 4% in the wake of the news, though it’s still up 40% from its October low.

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: Meta gave subpar ratings to thousands of workers in recent performance reviews, a move expected to lead to staff departures: WSJ

MarketWatch

Meta Platforms Inc. META assigned subpar ratings in recent performance reviews of thousands of its workers , a sign that more job cuts may be on the way, the Wall Street Journal reported Friday, citing people familiar with the matter. The company scrapped one bonus metric, a step it’s taking after Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg said 2023 would be a “year of efficiency,” the people said.