Sun.Jan 29, 2023

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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

Top clicks this week A look at Vanguard's 10-year equity return forecasts. (etf.com) Why higher interest rates won't cause a big shift from stocks into bonds. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Some rules of thumb on how much car or house you can afford. (thomaskopelman.com) Many investors don't understand the difference between arithmetic and geometric returns.

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Stock, Bond & Cash Returns Over the Past 95 Years

A Wealth of Common Sense

Each year Aswath Damodaran at NYU kindly updates the annual returns for stocks (S&P 500), bonds (10 year Treasuries) and cash (3-month T-bills) going back to 1928. I love this data because stocks, bonds and cash are the building blocks of asset allocation.1 Sure, you can add other asset classes and strategies but those three are where most investors should start when it comes to figuring out your portfolio mix.

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Sunday links: the tools we create

Abnormal Returns

Markets 11 things that zero interest rates enabled including the rise of Cathie Wood. (youngmoney.co) The 'nice-to-have' economy is already in recession. (wsj.com) AI Everyone is watching for Google's ($GOOGL) next move in AI. (wsj.com) Generative AI startup, Anthropic, is set to raise a mega-round of capital. (nytimes.com) How AI is being used to 'auto-complete' code.

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In CRE Investment, the Most Conservative Strategy Isn’t Necessarily the Safest

Wealth Management

Investors should ideally balance income-producing properties that typically generate modest yet steady returns with more growth-oriented investments that can potentially produce higher returns over a longer period.

Investing 108
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Register Now: Sneak Peek Into Close Automation SkyStem Web Demo

Technology is rapidly changing the way accountants perform and manage month-end activities. Spreadsheets, email, and shared drives no longer have to slow us down. Join us as we present a "sneak peek" recorded demo of SkyStem's month-end close solution – ART. In under four weeks, your team can start reaping the benefits of month-end close automation by vastly reducing spreadsheets, cut down on reconciliation work, speed up the month-end close, and better manage your remote team.

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A Government Shutdown

The Irrelevant Investor

Imagine the United States of America can’t pay its bills. That would be a pretty scary proposition. This sounds inconceivable, but it’s not without precedent. What this could do to the economy and the stock market is anybody’s guess, but there is probably less cause for alarm than you might think. That’s because the market does a good job of pricing in risk events that have a date associated with t.

More Trending

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Don’t Forget the Tried-and-True Value of Compounding Interest

Integrity Financial Planning

If you forgot what compounding interest was, let’s refresh. Compounding interest is the process by which the interest earned on an investment is reinvested so that the initial investment grows over time. It may not seem like it, but compounding returns is a powerful tool that can significantly increase the value of an investment over the long term, making it an important concept to understand when planning for retirement.

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Moving past client resistance to long-term financial planning

Million Dollar Round Table (MDRT)

By Kennedy Sumarlie, CFP Most of the time, retirement plans and children’s education fund-related products require long-term discipline and consistent financial commitment. This feels challenging for some clients. When I encounter a client who may be hesitant about long-term planning, I often use simple explanations. I avoid insurance jargon so it’s easier for people without an insurance background to understand.

Clients 88
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Talk Your Book: The Long and Short of Commodities

The Irrelevant Investor

Today’s show is brought to you by Teucrium We had Sal Gilbertie, CEO of Teucrium on the show to get an update on global commodity markets and a rundown on Teucrium’s latest fund. On today’s show, we discuss: What is going on with Oil & Gas Thoughts on if inflation peaked or not Supply and demand within agriculture An update on grain exports from Ukraine Teucriums machine learning L/S fund How China affects.

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8 Personal Finance QuestionsTo Ask Yourself Today

Clever Girl Finance

If you want to manage your money well, asking yourself some key personal finance questions is part of the answer. Taking stock of your finances can be a real task. So maybe it isn't too surprising that only around 27% of Americans have a financial plan. However, once you start pondering over the following questions, you can reassess your financial future.

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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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Real Disposable Income Per Capita Continued to Inch Up in December

Advisor Perspectives

With the release of Friday morning's report on December's personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.22% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.17% when we adjust for inflation. This is a decrease from last month's.28% nominal and 0.18% real change.

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[cdata[ The Great Debate: Spend Now Or Save For Tomorrow? ]]

oXYGen Financial

![CDATA[ The debate between spending money now and saving for the future is a complex and multifaceted one, with valid arguments on both sides. On the one hand, there are those who argue that it is important to enjoy life and spend money on the things that make us happy, especially in the present moment. This perspective is often referred to as "living in the moment" or "carpe diem," which is a.

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PCE Price Index: December Headline at 5% YoY

Advisor Perspectives

The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report for December was published on Friday morning by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The latest Headline PCE price index was up 0.05% month-over-month (MoM) and is up 5.02% year-over-year (YoY). Core PCE (YoY) dropped to 4.42%, still well above the Fed's 2% target rate.

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Sunday Night Futures

Calculated Risk

Weekend: • Schedule for Week of January 29, 2023 Monday: • At 10:30 AM ET, Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for January. This is the last of the regional Fed manufacturing surveys for January. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 futures are down 5 and DOW futures are down 46 (fair value). Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $79.68 per barrel and Brent at $86.66 per barrel.

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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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Michigan Consumer Sentiment Up 8% in January, Beats Forecast

Advisor Perspectives

The January Final Report came in at 64.9, up 5.2 (8.7%) from the December Final. Investing.com had forecast 64.6. Since its beginning in 1978, consumer sentiment is 24 percent below the average reading (arithmetic mean) and 23 percent below the geometric mean.

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FOMC Preview: 25bp Hike

Calculated Risk

Expectations are the FOMC will announce a 25bp rate increase in the federal funds rate and analysts will be looking for any mention of a possible pause in rate hikes at the March FOMC meeting. From Merrill Lynch: "At the February FOMC meeting, we look for the Fed to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 25bp to 4.50-4.75%. incoming data that points to a broadening of the slowdown and further signs of decelerating price pressures appear to have tipped the balance within the FOMC to

Banking 57
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How to Recognize and Protect Yourself Against Tax Identity Theft  

James Hendries

When you hear the term identity theft, the first thought that comes to mind may involve a data breach or opening a credit card in someone else’s name. But another common type of identity theft involves the use of someone’s Social Security number to unlawfully intercept their income tax refund. Unfortunately, this fraud often isn’t discovered until the victim tries to file their taxes.

Taxes 52
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Pending Home Sales Increased 2.5% in December, Ending Six-Month Slide

Advisor Perspectives

The National Association of Realtors released the December data for its pending home sales index. According to the National Association of Realtors®, " Pending home sales increased in December for the first time since May 2022 — following six consecutive months of declines.

Sales 52
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Transforming Lending: Understanding the Power of Digital Platforms

Digital platforms can provide you with plenty of solutions, yet many are still intimidated by them. It's time to end that worry and embrace what could make a major difference for your bank. Understanding how they work and how to best utilize them for your banks is key toward success. In this article, Biz2X breaks down all things digital platforms, including the many advantages of embracing them.

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[cdata[ Ways to Protect the Financial Data on your Mac from Malware ]]

oXYGen Financial

![CDATA[ Usually, what comes to mind when you hear of or see a Mac PC is an infallible system that's secure from malware or viruses. This reasoning is flawed. These PC systems are vulnerable and what's worse is that there are now more threats to the macOS than there were before. These threats, if unchecked and not fought against, will cause many security and privacy problems for the user.

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S&P 500 Snapshot: Friday Ends Up 0.25%

Advisor Perspectives

The S&P 500 climbed for most of the week, ending with its highest close of the year on Friday. The index is up 6.04% YTD and is 15.14% below its record close.

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Average Net Worth By Age: Where Do You Stand?

Clever Girl Finance

Net worth can be a pretty intense topic. Most of us know our net worth isn't as high as Beyonce’s, but do you know your net worth by age comparison? Keep in mind that ultimately, your net worth goals depend on what you want to accomplish financially from a personal perspective. So as you review these details on net worth comparison by age, keep your unique objectives in mind.

Budgeting 115
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Selectively Adding Complexity Into A Diversified Portfolio

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

From Twitter on Sunday; I've been referring to bonds with duration as being sources of unreliable volatility. A common reason to have fixed income exposure, often 40% of a portfolio, is to help manage equity market volatility. Longer bonds were down just as much as the S&P 500 in 2022, the longest of bonds were down more. This year, they appear to be up the same.

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Quick Start Guide to a Crystal Clear Close

Did you know automating your month-end close can save up to 40% of the time typically spent on manual reconciliations? CFOs and controllers are leveraging SkyStem's workflow management and reconciliation tool to eliminate costly mistakes, ditch manual reconciliations and close faster. Want to know how they do it? Download our Quick Start Guide to a Crystal Clear Close!

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The Student Debt Crisis And Black Women

Clever Girl Finance

Every summer a fresh wave of black college women start a new phase of their lives after high school. Many discover who they are, what their goals are, and what they want to do once they graduate. However, the student debt crisis is unfortunately still a big problem. It can be an exciting time because college promises the ability to start earning a consistent income after graduation.

Budgeting 105
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10 Sunday Reads

The Big Picture

Avert your eyes! My Sunday morning look at incompetency, corruption and policy failures: • There have been more than 600 mass shootings since January 2022 : Mass shootings — where four or more people, not including the shooter, are injured or killed — have averaged more than one per day since this time last year. Not a single week in 2022 has passed without at least four mass shootings. ( Washington Post ) see also Gun violence in US and what the statistics tell us : Among high-income countries