2023 Market Outlook: Financial Factors Shaping the Year Ahead

For the first time since 2018, the S&P 500, along with most other major indices had a negative return for the calendar year in 2022. Financial buzzwords like inflation and interest rates appeared constantly in the media and social media, and rightfully so with the role they played. Meanwhile, conflict abroad, unfortunately, came into the spotlight with the invasion of Ukraine, sending a global shockwave that had a large impact financially.

Those were just a few of the headlines we saw last year. While they undoubtedly shaped the financial picture for many, there was plenty more at play. We explore the investing trends that developed – or continued to develop – in 2022, and look toward the year ahead in our third annual market outlook. You can read the entire outlook and more about each of the pieces in this year’s publication below.

Questions about any of the pieces in this year’s outlook? Send us an email at info@walknercondon.com.

A Bear Market in Search of a Recession: 2022 Recap & 2023 Market Preview

In his cover story for this year’s outlook, Syl Michelin, Walkner Condon’s resident Chartered Financial Analyst, addresses the question of whether we’re headed toward a recession. Drawing on data from prior recessions as well as data on current economic conditions, Syl points to the idea that perhaps a recession isn’t imminent.

Playing It Safe? The State of the Fixed Income Market

One of the investing topics we heard a lot about in 2022 – and that we covered on the Gimme Some Truth podcast – was the bond market. In a bad year for stocks, bonds also had a rough go of things. Mitch DeWitt dives more into the state of fixed income heading into 2023.

Geopolitical | Conflict Plays Pivotal Role in Tumultuous 2022

The war in Ukraine had wide-reaching consequences in 2022 and played a large part in the financial challenges throughout the year. Nate Condon discusses the geopolitical headlines from 2022 and how they affected the markets.

Housing Market | Will Rates Stay This Way?

Mortgage rates had a record year in 2022, but not in a good way. According to data from Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, mortgage rates rose more than any previous year on record, climbing by 3.2% to end 2022 at almost 6.5% on average. Jonathon Jordan covers what we saw in the housing sector last year and what might be on tap in 2023.

Slice of Life | How to Stop Making Bad Financial Decisions

Many of us know that a financial decision may be unwise before we make it. Yet, we still go through with it. In this piece, Alicia Vande Ven dives into the behavioral psychology of making bad financial decisions, and how we can correct the thinking that leads us astray. 

Investment Trend | The Rise of Direct Indexing

A hundred years ago, people primarily invested in individual stocks through stockbrokers. Mutual funds changed the game, followed by the further advances – and a decrease in investing costs – brought on by exchange-traded funds in the early 2000s. As Clint Walkner, explains in this piece, direct indexing, one of the newest investment options targeted toward high-net-worth individuals, is a move back to the future, of sorts. 

Currency | The End of the Dollar Bull Run?

Along with the outperformance of U.S. stocks compared to international stocks over the past decade, the dollar has also been in a period of outperformance compared to other currencies. In this piece, Stan Farmer assesses the factors at play that could contribute to a potential end to that run for the dollar, and how investors, particularly Americans living abroad, can adjust accordingly in 2023.

International | A Tale of Two Markets

Drawing an analogy with Charles Dickens’s “Tale of Two Cities,” Keith Poniewaz analyzes the international markets in 2022 (not quite the best of times, but not as bad as U.S. equity markets) and foreign currencies being hit hard by the dollar (the worst of times). The conclusion? There may be opportunities in international markets in 2023.