Sun.Mar 19, 2023

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How professional short sellers view the current markets

The Reformed Broker

Dan McMurtrie crushed it on TCAF this week. In case you haven’t gotten to it yet, the whole video is embedded below. You can also listen to it if you’re on the go. At the 25 minute mark, he does this really great explanation of why shorting stocks is so hard, including the toll it can take on a trader’s mental health – even when they end up being right.

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Sunday links: guarantors of stability

Abnormal Returns

Markets Ben Carlson, "History is chock-full of panics, crises, crashes, ups, downs and the unexpected." (awealthofcommonsense.com) Surprises shouldn't be surprising. (mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) Energy stocks are now struggling. (allstarcharts.com) Companies Growth in spending on SaaS services is slowing. (tomtunguz.com) Why Berkshire Hathaway's ($BRK.A) proxy statement is so short.

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: U.S. stock-market futures edge higher after historic deal to rescue Credit Suisse

MarketWatch

U.S. stock-index futures opened with modest gains Sunday evening as investors assessed a historic deal to rescue troubled Swiss lender Credit Suisse as authorities scrambled to head off a deeper loss of confidence in the global banking system. Rival bank UBS Group UBS agreed to buy Credit Suisse CSCH:CSGN for more than $3 billion in a deal shepherded by Swiss regulators.

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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

Also on the site Why seemingly impossible things happen all the time. (abnormalreturns.com) Don’t waste your emotional capital investing out of spite. (abnormalreturns.com) Top clicks this week The Fed finally broke something. (theirrelevantinvestor.com) Why you always seem to sell your stocks at the bottom. (dariusforoux.com) How SVB went wrong, an explainer.

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Register Now: Sneak Peek Into Close Automation SkyStem Web Demo

Technology is rapidly changing the way accountants perform and manage month-end activities. Spreadsheets, email, and shared drives no longer have to slow us down. Join us as we present a "sneak peek" recorded demo of SkyStem's month-end close solution – ART. In under four weeks, your team can start reaping the benefits of month-end close automation by vastly reducing spreadsheets, cut down on reconciliation work, speed up the month-end close, and better manage your remote team.

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What Does a Rolling Recession Mean for Your Retirement?

Integrity Financial Planning

What Is Rolling Recession You may have noticed that the economy after the pandemic has been very up and down. And while there has been talk of a possible recession for a few years now, we have yet to completely enter a recession. A recession is traditionally defined as a consistent, widespread downturn in the economy. [1] And although there have been major market downturns recently, there have also been major rallies.

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The SVB Situation and Your Financial Picture

Integrity Financial Planning

You’ve likely heard the news that Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) has experienced a financial shock. In a matter of a few short days, Silicon Valley Bank lost its funds and went under. So, let’s get into the facts that can help put this event into context. The Series of Events Before interest rates started to rise, SVB, a large and respected bank primarily for tech companies and startups, had lots of cash on hand.

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These Are the Goods

The Irrelevant Investor

Articles The tech sector that reshaped American business and culture in the 21st century is coming apart. (By Zachary Carter) A bank failure isn’t unusual, just a byproduct of a changing economy (By Callie Cox) I am in the business of not letting people down (By Jared Dillian) The Federal Reserve’s most important attribute is about to be tested: its integrity.

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Volatility is Nothing New

A Wealth of Common Sense

Last week Wednesday two year treasury yields closed the day at 5.05%. It was the highest level since the summer of 2006. That’s a pretty juicy yield for short-term government bonds. Unfortunately, it didn’t last. Look at the plunge in rates since the banking crisis took hold late last week: It looks like a stock market crash. This is not normal.

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Massive growth with targeted referrals and introductions

Million Dollar Round Table (MDRT)

By David Batchelor, Dip PFS, CFP We went from asking for referrals in a way that was random and without a process to a strategy that was more specific and straightforward. This helped bring massive growth in my business — up to 500%. Specific referrals Like many financial advisors, we had previously asked for referrals using the standard, “Who do you know?

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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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Talk Your Book: How to Buy Treasuries

The Irrelevant Investor

Today’s Talk Your Book is brought to you by US Benchmark Series: On today’s show, we spoke with Alex Morris, Co-Founder and CIO of F/m Investment to discuss the 2023 banking crisis and investing in treasuries. On today’s show, we discuss: The need for a treasury product for investors How US Benchmark runs their treasury ETFs What “on the run” means Why focus on one treasury duration The volatility.

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: UBS reportedly reaches deal to buy Credit Suisse for more than $2 billion

MarketWatch

UBS UBS will buy Credit Suisse for more than $2 billion in an all-stock deal, the Financial Times reported, citing people with direct knowledge of the transaction. The 0.50 francs per share UBS is offering, in stock, compares to Credit Suisse’s CH:CSGN closing price of 1.86 francs on Friday. Separately, The Wall Street Journal reported the Swiss National Bank offered UBS a roughly $100 billion liquidity to absorb Credit Suisse.

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The Food Pyramid Is Killing Us

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

Barron's had a fantastic (not being sarcastic) article about potential health care cost inflation coming for retirees. It laid out the threat and dug in with some numbers. Apparently, health insurance companies are asking for regulatory approval to increase premiums by 10-20%. One expert said to prepare for 10-14% increases for a couple of years and then expect 5% after that.

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: Bitcoin surges past $28,000 after UBS deal to buy Credit Suisse

MarketWatch

Bitcoin surged on Sunday night after the announcement that UBS will buy Credit Suisse, setting the stage for a potential risk-on rally. Bitcoin BTCUSD recently was trading at $28,255, up some $842. The cryptocurrency is now 74% from its lows of Nov. 21. Market Pulse Stories are Rapid-fire, short news bursts on stocks and markets as they move. Visit MarketWatch.com for more information on this news.

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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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Sunday Night Futures

Calculated Risk

Weekend: • Schedule for Week of March 19, 2023 Monday: • No major economic releases scheduled. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 futures and DOW futures are unchanged (fair value). Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $66.37 per barrel and Brent at $72.57 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $105, and Brent was at $114 - so WTI oil prices are DOWN 37% year-over-year.

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: Fed coordinates with global banks to to ease dollar-funding as banking crisis intensifies

MarketWatch

The Federal Reserve and a quintet of global central banks on Sunday announced a coordinated effort to ease a fast-growing banking crisis, in the hours after UBS announced a historic, emergency merger with troubled Credit SuisseCS. The central bank, including the Bank of Japan, Bank of Canada, Swiss National Bank and the European Central Bank, said it would increase the cadence of of seven-day maturity to daily from weekly operations.

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[cdata[ How 529 Plans Can Now Fund Education and Retirement ]]

oXYGen Financial

![CDATA[ You probably think of education when you hear the term 529 plan; however, because of the SECURE Act 2.0 , you now can roll a portion of 529 plan funds into a Roth IRA for your child. This is substantial when you consider what it means for any excess funds you have, along with the tax advantaged nature of both the 529 plan and Roth IRA. Let's walk through each of these, how the process.

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: Yellen, Powell and Lagarde praise fast action by Swiss officials to ensure Credit Suisse deal

MarketWatch

U.S. and European officials were quick to praise Swiss authorities for helping hammer out UBS’s UBSCH:UBSG $3.25 billion deal to buy embattled rival Credit Suisse AG CSCH:CSGN that was announced on Sunday. “We welcome the announcements by the Swiss authorities today to support financial stability. The capital and liquidity positions of the U.S. banking system are strong, and the U.S. financial system is resilient.

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Transforming Lending: Understanding the Power of Digital Platforms

Digital platforms can provide you with plenty of solutions, yet many are still intimidated by them. It's time to end that worry and embrace what could make a major difference for your bank. Understanding how they work and how to best utilize them for your banks is key toward success. In this article, Biz2X breaks down all things digital platforms, including the many advantages of embracing them.

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10 Sunday Reads

The Big Picture

Avert your eyes! My Sunday morning look at incompetency, corruption and policy failures — now SVB-free!: • Wealthy Executives Make Millions Trading Competitors’ Stock With Remarkable Timing : Executives at companies can also have extensive access to nonpublic information about rivals, partners or vendors through their business. Buying or selling stock based on that knowledge may or may not run afoul of insider-trading law. ( ProPublica ) • China’s Faith in All-Powerful Xi Shaken by Chaos

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