Fri.Oct 21, 2022

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Sussing Out Probabilities

The Big Picture

Why are markets rallying and/or falling every other day? They make gains only to give them back, or they sell off hard only to subsequently regain the losses. I suspect it is because the dispersion of likely future outcomes is so unusually wide. Meaning, what investors imagine as the most likely outcomes are all over the map. Perhaps a weather analogy may help explain : Since its October, let’s imagine a typical weather report: 80% chance of sunshine, with a slight chance of showers overni

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Friday links: generative AI

Abnormal Returns

Finance Per AngelList, the Q3 drop in venture activity was substantial. (angellist.com) Questions keep getting raised about TikTok's data practices. (forbes.com) Fidelity is not abandoning crypto. (bloomberg.com) InstaCart has paused its IPO. (axios.com) Global Why isn't Japan raising rates? (nytimes.com) The backlog of container ships off the coast of Southern California is effectively gone.

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (Oct 22-23)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of “Weekend Reading For Financial Planners” - this week’s edition kicks off with the news that Congress appears poised to pass a series of changes affecting retirement planning, dubbed “SECURE ACT 2.0”, by the end of the year. Provisions in the proposed legislation include gradually increasing the age for RMDs from 72 to 75, allowing extra ‘catch-up’ contributions to workplace retirement plans, and permitting companies to ma

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No Capitulation Necessary

The Reformed Broker

Welcome to the latest episode of The Compound & Friends. This week, Michael Batnick, Dan Greenhaus, and Downtown Josh Brown discuss what constitutes a recession, the Fed, ramifications of a strong dollar, Tesla’s earnings call, buybacks, the importance of interest rates, and more! BONUS: Barry Ritholtz makes a special appearance! You can listen to the whole thing below, or find it wherever you like to listen to.

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Register Now: Sneak Peek Into Close Automation SkyStem Web Demo

Technology is rapidly changing the way accountants perform and manage month-end activities. Spreadsheets, email, and shared drives no longer have to slow us down. Join us as we present a "sneak peek" recorded demo of SkyStem's month-end close solution – ART. In under four weeks, your team can start reaping the benefits of month-end close automation by vastly reducing spreadsheets, cut down on reconciliation work, speed up the month-end close, and better manage your remote team.

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Podcast links: IP theft

Abnormal Returns

The biz How is the Spotify ($SPOT) exclusive podcast model working? (simonowens.substack.com) Claims of IP theft in podcasting are nothing new. (theguardian.com) Business Tim Ferriss talks with Aryeh Bourkoff, Chairman and CEO of LionTree, an independent investment and merchant bank. (tim.blog) Howard Lindzon talks with Dave Finocchio founder of Bleacher Report and co-founder of The Cool Down.

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More Trending

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Why Isn’t Inflation Falling?

A Wealth of Common Sense

These are the past 7 annual inflation prints by month: March 8.5% April 8.3% May 8.6% June 9.1% July 8.5% August 8.3% September 8.2% That’s 7 months in a row of inflation above 8%. This hasn’t happened since the early-1980s. So what gives? The Fed has been raising rates aggressively, supply chains are improving, oil prices have fallen by a third and gas prices are well off their highs.

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RIA Deal-Makers Face an Ebbing Tide

Wealth Management

The big players in RIA M&A may be putting on a good face. But debt-heavy acquirers are starting to feel the impacts of the market environment, and it isn’t pretty.

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Top 4 Websites Financial Advisors Should Be Using For Industry Updates

Advisor Websites

You've had a great meeting with your client, resulting in a few changes to their financial strategy that you both feel confident and excited about. Your client leaves and you look forward to your next session with them to share the exciting results from the adjustments made. Later that day, you head out to meet a fellow advisor for dinner, who asks for your take on one of the most recent industry updates.

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Get a job as a Financial Paraplanner at an RIA firm and ignore the schmucky wirehouse and insurance jobs!

Sara Grillo

For those looking to crack in and get a job at an RIA firm and become a financial advisor – good news! There are better options than entering a predatory insurance or wirehouse training program and crossing your fingers (which is an AWFUL idea, by the way). In this blog, I interview paraplanning professionals to get their take on what the role is, what it pays, and what it potential is for someone who wants to get a job as a financial paraplanner, possibly as a stepping stone to other wealth man

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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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Q3 GDP Tracking: In 2% Range

Calculated Risk

The advance estimate for Q3 GDP will be released next Thursday and the consensus is that real GDP increased 2.4%, on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis. From BofA: The smaller-than-expected decline in existing home sales lifted our 3Q US GDP tracker from 2.0% q/q saar to 2.1%. [October 20th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: Following this morning’s data, we left our Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +2.4% (qoq ar).

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VettaFi Buys Advisor Perspectives

Wealth Management

The acquisition of the financial services publisher increases VettaFi’s reach by as much as 300%, says CMO Jon Fee.

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The Effect of Indexing on Price Discovery and Limits to Arbitrage

Alpha Architect

We discuss the academic research about the causal effect of indexing on arbitrage conditions and price discovery. The Effect of Indexing on Price Discovery and Limits to Arbitrage was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.

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401(k) Real Chat: Shawn O'Brien

Wealth Management

Retirement industry thought leaders answer three probing questions on critical issues, providing an open, honest and candid dialogue.

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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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How Are Millionaires Feeling About Retirement?

Mullooly Asset Management

In this week’s podcast, Tom, Tim and Casey discuss the eye-popping results of a survey that asked millionaires how they are feeling about retirement. This leads the guys into a broader conversation about changing market dynamics, like fixed income products offering better rates, and what they are seeing underneath the hood of the stock market. […] In this week’s podcast, Tom, Tim and Casey discuss the eye-popping results of a survey that asked millionaires how they are feeling about

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2023 IRS Contribution Limits and Tax Rates

Darrow Wealth Management

The IRS has released the 2023 contribution limits for retirement plans and other cost-of-living adjustments. The agency also released tax brackets for ordinary income and long-term capital gains. Contribution Limits for 401(k)s, IRAs and More in 2023. Income Limits for Tax-Deductible IRA Contributions & Roth IRA Contribution Eligibility. Income Tax Rates in 2023.

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Chris Gandy to Receive the 2022 NAIFA Diversity Champion Award

NAIFA Advisor Today

Christopher Gandy , LACP, Founder of Midwest Legacy Group in Lisle, IL, and the top-ranked producer for OneAmerica , has been recognized as the NAIFA Diversity Champion for 2022. Gandy, a loyal NAIFA member since 2003, serves on NAIFA’s Board of Trustees, is a Past President of NAIFA-Chicagoland , and is a Co-Chair of NAIFA’s Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) Council.

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Stock Surge Is Likely Another Bear Market Rally According To Some

Validea

Last week, the S&P 500 saw a huge peak, followed by a valley the very next day. And while there’s not a clear explanation for what’s causing the swings, there is speculation that the wild swings are a sign that this year’s bear market is approaching its bottom at last, contends an article in The Wall Street Journal. While investor sentiment has once again turned negative, the big price declines has many wondering whether the time is right to buy.

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Transforming Lending: Understanding the Power of Digital Platforms

Digital platforms can provide you with plenty of solutions, yet many are still intimidated by them. It's time to end that worry and embrace what could make a major difference for your bank. Understanding how they work and how to best utilize them for your banks is key toward success. In this article, Biz2X breaks down all things digital platforms, including the many advantages of embracing them.

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Advising Beyond the Money

Wealth Management

Helping HNW clients with lifestyle-based needs.

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Dean of Valuation: Market Is Being Driven By “Mood & Momentum”

Validea

“Mood and momentum” is what’s driving the market right now, Professor Aswath Damodaran of NYU’s Stern School of Business told CNBC International TV in a recent interview. Investors are looking at the macro environment rather than individual companies, he said, likening the current sentiment to a home inspection at a house on the Florida coast in the middle of the hurricane.

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10 Easy Financial Planning Steps for Beginners

James Hendries

If you’ve never engaged in financial planning and are unsure how to get started, this article is for you. A financial plan starts by evaluating your current financial situation and future expectations and can be created independently or with the help of a financial professional. In short, financial planning involves: Examining long-term financial goals and creating a strategy to pursue them.

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Financial Market Recap for Q3: Gimme Some Truth Podcast

Walkner Condon Financial Advisors

How did the markets fare in the third quarter? What trends are unfolding this year? And what’s on the horizon for the rest of the year? Nate Condon and Clint Walkner unearth the answers to those questions (and more) in this bonus episode of Gimme Some Truth, our Q3 market recap. Armed with data from JPMorgan’s Guide to the Markets , Clint & Nate explore the drivers of inflation, U.S. market outperformance, bonds, and more.

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Your New & Improved Month-End Close Process Is Not So Far Out of Reach!

All accounting teams know what it is like to dread the inevitable month-end scaries. If there was a way to feel less burdened and maybe even a little enthusiastic to work on your month-end close and reconciliation process, would you do it? No, don't answer that, of course you would! Automate your month-end close process by up to 40% with SkyStem's ART and see how much more alive you feel!

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2022 3rd Quarter Market Update: Navigating Challenge Markets

Financial Symmetry

It’s been a challenging year in the stock and bond markets. So in this month’s video recap of our market outlook, we are answering the following questions: Why markets have been challenging this year? What’s consistent with the 17 bear … Continued. The post 2022 3rd Quarter Market Update: Navigating Challenge Markets appeared first on Financial Symmetry, Inc.

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Get on board and help drive transforming change!

Norman Marks

This week, I was privileged to attend and contribute to a great conference chaired by my good friend, Gene Kim. His organization is IT Revolution. The DevOps Enterprise Summit in Las Vegas finished today, but in the video library you can see some of the great presentations. I was only there for half a day, […].

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The Three Percent Rule?

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

GMO hosted a web event about managing sequence of return risk. I was not able to sit in on it but they sent out a summary afterwards. Not sure if this link will work but you can try if you want. One thing that jumped out to me was the following: The success rate at a 4% withdrawal rate is right in line with data from other sources and generally held assumptions about the 4% rule.

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IRS Increases 401(k) Limit by Record Amount as Inflation Surges

Wealth Management

Individuals can contribute $22,500 to the popular savings plans starting in 2023, up from $20,500.

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The Blueprint for a Customer-Centric Digital Lending Experience

Creating a winning digital lending experience requires plenty of focus on the needs of customers and more. Biz2X Chief Product Officer Aaron Traub covers everything from how to create such an experience, areas to hone in on, pitfalls to avoid, and plenty more in this insightful article. Discover how to utilize new technology without alienating existing customers, what to emphasize when working on your platform, and how to utilize the data at your disposal while not becoming overly reliant on it.

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COVID Oct 21, 2022: Update on Cases, Hospitalizations and Deaths

Calculated Risk

30-year mortgage rates at a 20-year high. NOTE: COVID stats are updated on Fridays. On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths). Data has switched to weekly. NOTE: Cases have declined by two-thirds from the recent peak, and deaths lag cases - so we might see weekly deaths below 2,000 soon (good news, but still too high). Weekly deaths bottomed in July 2021 at 1,666.

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Evaluating Bond ETFs For Precision Investing

Wealth Management

Monday, November 07, 2022 | 4:00 PM ET

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2023 Mercedes EQE Electric SUV

The Big Picture

Earlier this week I asked What’s Ailing Tesla’s Stock? The usual answers — Elon Musk’s distraction(s), and the company’s high valuation – are certainly fair reasons, but I suspect the biggest challenge is competition from legacy car makers. The latest comes from Mercedes-Benz: The EQE. Aimed squarely at Tesla’s best-selling Model Y, the EQE SUV boasts 367 miles of battery range and starts at ~$68,000.

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