Thu.Feb 09, 2023

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The Hype Cycle, Expertise & Dunning Kruger

The Big Picture

I am always fascinated when seemingly random sources converge on the same concept. The current convergence involved some research I was doing centered on Dunning Kruger, Vanguard’s Tim Buckley, my partner Josh’s AI/ChatGPT post, and the general state of the market. It’s like a real-time version of “ The Blind Men and the Elephant ,” by John Godfrey Saxe.

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Clips From Today’s Halftime Report

The Reformed Broker

Final Trades: Danaher, AbbVie, Paramount & more from CNBC. The post Clips From Today’s Halftime Report appeared first on The Reformed Broker.

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Thursday links: a clear and present danger

Abnormal Returns

Strategy How a big, successful trade can distort your thinking for years to come. (youngmoney.co) Meb Faber on why more people don't invest in managed futures funds. (rcmalternatives.com) Companies Activist investors are lining up against Salesforce ($CRM). (wsj.com) Just how big is Apple's ($AAPL) services business? (finbold.com) Do we need to slow down the race to public AI?

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Kitces & Carl Ep 105: When A Prospect Doesn’t Meet Your Minimum: Navigating The Awkwardness Gracefully

Nerd's Eye View

For many financial advisors, setting asset minimums helps ensure that their firm can generate enough revenue to maintain business costs and compensate the advisor appropriately. While finding prospective clients who are a good fit for the firm can be challenging, what can be even more challenging is letting a prospect who doesn’t meet the firm’s asset minimum requirements know that they wouldn’t be a good fit for the firm.

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Register Now: Sneak Peek Into Close Automation SkyStem Web Demo

Technology is rapidly changing the way accountants perform and manage month-end activities. Spreadsheets, email, and shared drives no longer have to slow us down. Join us as we present a "sneak peek" recorded demo of SkyStem's month-end close solution – ART. In under four weeks, your team can start reaping the benefits of month-end close automation by vastly reducing spreadsheets, cut down on reconciliation work, speed up the month-end close, and better manage your remote team.

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Longform links: an interesting place

Abnormal Returns

Books An excerpt from "A Hacker's Mind: How the Powerful Bend Society’s Rules, and How to Bend them Back" by Bruce Schneier. (wired.com) A Q&A with Eduardo J. Gómez author of "Junk Food Politics: How Beverage and Fast Food Industries Are Reshaping Emerging Economies." (npr.org) An excerpt from "The Wise Hours: A Journey Into the Wild and Secret World of Owls," a new book by Miriam Darlington.

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More Trending

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15 tips on working from home: find your balance

Nationwide Financial

When the COVID-19 pandemic hit in 2020 and many offices sent workers home, it was uncertain when we would go back into the office. Now, nearly three years from that first lockdown, many companies have implemented full-time and hybrid remote work policies. After adjusting to such a big shift, it can still feel hard to establish helpful working habits outside of the office.

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Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Up 70% YoY; New Listings Down 11% YoY

Calculated Risk

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released today from Chief Economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Feb 4, 2023 • Active inventory growth continued to climb with for-sale homes up 70% above one year ago. Inventories of for-sale homes rose again, but climbed at a slightly slower yearly pace than last week. • New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were again down, this week by 11% fro

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: Labcorp to spin off its clinical research organization under the name Fortrea

MarketWatch

CORRECTION: An earlier version of this report incorrectly stated that Labcorp is spinning off a second business. It is not. The company only plans to spin off its clinical research organization. The report has been corrected. Labcorp LH said Thursday that it plans to spin off its clinical development business into a publicly traded clinical research organization, or CRO, in mid-2023.

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Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 7.3% Compared to Same Week in 2019

Calculated Risk

From CoStar: STR: Weekly US Hotel Occupancy Hovers Around 55% U.S. hotel performance fell slightly from the previous week, according to STR‘s latest data through Feb. 4. Jan. 29 to Feb. 4, 2023 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*): • Occupancy: 55.3% (-7.3%) • Average daily rate (ADR): $145.35 (+13.9%) • Revenue per available room (RevPAR): $80.45 (+5.6%) *Due to the pandemic impact, STR is measuring recovery against comparable time periods from 2019.

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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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: Hilton stock rises toward 9-month high after profit more than doubles to beat expectations

MarketWatch

Shares of Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. HLT hiked up 2.4% toward a nine-month high in premarket trading Thursday, after the hotel operator reported fourth-quarter profit that more than doubled and beat expectations, as revenue per available room (RevPAR) exceeded pre-pandemic levels for the second straight quarter. Net income rose to $332 million, or $1.21 a share, from $147 million, or 52 cents a share, in the year-ago period.

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Mindy Diamond on Independence: Verdence's Leo Kelly on Breaking Away Twice

Wealth Management

Leo Kelly, the founder and CEO of Verdence Capital Advisors, discusses life after Merrill and the choice to “breakaway” twice: first by joining Hightower and 5 years later by launching an RIA.

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Coronavirus tally: WHO says omicron still dominant variant globally as XBB.1.5 gains ground

MarketWatch

The World Health Organization said omicron and its descendent lineages are still dominant globally, but have declined in relative prevalence. In the week through Jan. 22, they accounted for 53.9% prevalence among sequences submitted to a central database, down from 74.2% in the week through Dec. 25. Pooled recombinant variant sequences rose to 24.6% from 8.8%, mostly due to XBB.1.5, which is dominant in the U.S. where most sequences were reported, the agency said in its weekly epidemiological up

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Deconstructing 10, 20 & 30 Year Stock Market Returns

A Wealth of Common Sense

A reader asks: I’ve just come across your blog post from 2016, “Deconstructing 30-Year Stock Market Returns.” Thank you for that! It was just about exactly what I was looking for. I wonder if you have updated your finding since then? Also, have you run the analysis for other time periods? 10-year and 20-year rolling averages would also be interesting.

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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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Cetera Takes Minority Stake In $1.7B Kansas City OSJ

Wealth Management

The acquisition of Prosperity Advisors, an OSJ led by Paul Ewing, is the second such minority deal for Cetera and part of the firm's new partner practice program.

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Serving Clients at All Stages of the Financial Planning Lifecycle Effectively and Efficiently

eMoney Advisor

Recent research 1 found that there is a large population of Americans interested in financial guidance. Of an estimated 104 million households seeking some level of financial advice, 88 million of those households want that advice from a financial professional. If you are looking for opportunities to grow your business, expanding your services to clients at all stages of the financial planning lifecycle creates new opportunities for you to reach those households in search of professional advice

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Seven Must Reads for CRE Investors Today (Feb. 10, 2023)

Wealth Management

A new report from the Federal Reserve shows tighter underwriting standards and weaker demand for commercial real estate loans. Multifamily Dive looks at five markets that have the most potential for multifamily distress. These are among today’s must reads from around the commercial real estate industry.

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The Compound and Friends: Belski the Bull

The Irrelevant Investor

Today’s episode is sponsored by Advisorshares: See here for more information on their Dorsey Wright ETFs On today’s show, we discuss: What recession? Some economists see chances of a growth rebound Bob Igers return Alphabet falls most in 3 months on Bard accuracy concerns Google stock tumbles after Bard ad shows inaccurate answer, AI race heats up Recommendations: Kramer v Kramer Taylor Sheridan.

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Transforming Lending: Understanding the Power of Digital Platforms

Digital platforms can provide you with plenty of solutions, yet many are still intimidated by them. It's time to end that worry and embrace what could make a major difference for your bank. Understanding how they work and how to best utilize them for your banks is key toward success. In this article, Biz2X breaks down all things digital platforms, including the many advantages of embracing them.

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Longevity Is the Biggest Threat to Successful Retirement

Wealth Management

Wealthier people are most likely to outlive mortality averages; advisors have a special obligation to focus on longevity risk with their clients.

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3 Money-Saving Moving Tips!

MainStreet Financial Planning

Whether you’re moving across town or across states, moving can be stressful and expensive. Here are a few tips to help reduce stress, save on costs, and help make the transition as smooth as possible. Utilize online communities : There are a lot of expenses related to moving and moving supplies are one of the sneakiest culprits. You can easily spend hundreds of dollars just on specialty boxes – it seems they have created a specialty box for everything – mirrors, TVs, lamps, wardrobe boxes, and t

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WHY do auditors do that?

Norman Marks

One of the most powerful words for an auditor is one of the shortest: “why”. We should always ask an individual performing a control why they are doing it. Even if we know why, if the individual doesn’t know why that can affect their ability to perform the control properly, on a consistent basis.

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William Blair, InvestCloud Launch New SYSTM Platform For RIAs

Wealth Management

The first component of the new platform, a turnkey asset management platform supporting SMAs and UMAs, is now live.

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Your New & Improved Month-End Close Process Is Not So Far Out of Reach!

All accounting teams know what it is like to dread the inevitable month-end scaries. If there was a way to feel less burdened and maybe even a little enthusiastic to work on your month-end close and reconciliation process, would you do it? No, don't answer that, of course you would! Automate your month-end close process by up to 40% with SkyStem's ART and see how much more alive you feel!

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: Tesla stock rallies again, toward the longest win streak in seven months

MarketWatch

Shares of Tesla Inc. TSLA jumped 3.2% toward a three-month high in premarket trading, putting them on track an eighth straight gain. If the electric vehicle maker’s stock closes up Thursday, it would mark the longest winning streak since the eight-session stretch that ended July 22, 2022. The stock has soared 20.8% over the past seven sessions, and rocketed 58.3% amid a 14-session stretch in which it has gained 13 times.

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New CRE Tech Platform Aims to be a ‘Dating Service’ for 1031 Exchange Deals

Wealth Management

The nxtCRE platform aims to connect 1031 exchange investors, property sellers and lenders.

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Spread between 2- and 10-year Treasury yields is on pace for its deepest inversion since October 1981

MarketWatch

The Treasury curve, as measured by the spread between 2- and 10-year yields, headed for its deepest inversion in more than 41 years on Thursday. The spread narrowed to as little as minus 87.2 basis points, driven by a drop in the 10-year rate while the 2-year rate held steady. It's on pace to surpass the recent low spread of minus 84.9 basis points set on Dec. 7, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

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RIA Edge 100: The Mather Group

Wealth Management

The Mather Group has grown by more than 700% over the last five years, due to an active M&A pipeline, a mysterious lead generation strategy and a “truly professional” CEO.

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The Blueprint for a Customer-Centric Digital Lending Experience

Creating a winning digital lending experience requires plenty of focus on the needs of customers and more. Biz2X Chief Product Officer Aaron Traub covers everything from how to create such an experience, areas to hone in on, pitfalls to avoid, and plenty more in this insightful article. Discover how to utilize new technology without alienating existing customers, what to emphasize when working on your platform, and how to utilize the data at your disposal while not becoming overly reliant on it.

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: PepsiCo Q4 earnings beat estimates as guidance falls short; board approves 10% dividend hike

MarketWatch

PepsiCo Inc. PEP said Thursday it had net income of $518 million, or 37 cents a share, in the fourth quarter, down from $1.322 billion, or 95 cents a share, in the year-earlier period. Adjusted for non-recurring items, the company had EPS of $1.67, ahead of the $1.65 FactSet consensus. Revenue rose to $27.996 billion from $25.248 billion a year ago, also ahead of the FactSet consensus of $26.828 billion.

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Stock Market Roller Coaster: Prepare for a Decade or Two of Disappointing Returns

Advisor Perspectives

Investors who own index funds have strapped themselves into a giant stock market roller coaster which, to this point, has only gone up.

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: Coach parent Tapestry stock jumps 5.5% premarket after profit beat as company raises guidance

MarketWatch

Tapestry Inc. stock TPR rose 5,5% in premarket trade Thursday, after the parent to Kate Spade, Coach and Stuart Weitzman beat profit estimates for its fiscal second quarter and raised guidance. The New York-based company had net income of $329.9 million, or $1.36 a share, for the quarter through Dec. 31, up from $317.9 million, or $1.15 a share, in the year-earlier period.

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