Fri.Dec 30, 2022

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History of Industries Listed on S&P 500

The Big Picture

Source: QAD Blog. A perfect way to end the 2022 annus horriblis is to remind readers that not just individual stocks, but entire sectors fall in and out of favor. It iss extremely challenging to select the right sector at the right time (and for the right reasons). Almost nobody does this well consistently over time. Here is QAD from 2019: In business, change is inevitable , and those that fail to adapt and innovate are often doomed to failure.

Economy 297
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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (Dec 31-Jan 1)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of “Weekend Reading For Financial Planners” - this week’s edition kicks off with the news that the passage of “SECURE Act 2.0” has brought a wide range of changes to the world of retirement planning. And given the variety of planning opportunities created by the legislation – from the raising of the beginning age for RMDs to the ability to transfer funds from 529 plans to Roth IRAs – advisors have a significant opportunity t

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Friday links: the problem with inflation

Abnormal Returns

Markets A great reminder that S&P 500 industries go in and out of fashion. (ritholtz.com) Leveraged, long Bitcoin was not a good strategy in 2022. (bloomberg.com) Airlines Southwest Airlines ($LUV) seems to be back on track. (finance.yahoo.com) Fliers and front line workers bear the brunt of airline chaos. (nytimes.com) Food The price of cultivated meat is rapidly coming down.

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Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Up 63% YoY; New Listings Down 6% YoY

Calculated Risk

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. For the week ending December 24th, active inventory was up 63.1% year-over-year (YoY), up from 58.1% YoY last week. New listings were down 5.7% YoY , the smallest YoY decrease since July. This small YoY decrease in new listings might be related to the holidays. Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com.

Marketing 142
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Register Now: Sneak Peek Into Close Automation SkyStem Web Demo

Technology is rapidly changing the way accountants perform and manage month-end activities. Spreadsheets, email, and shared drives no longer have to slow us down. Join us as we present a "sneak peek" recorded demo of SkyStem's month-end close solution – ART. In under four weeks, your team can start reaping the benefits of month-end close automation by vastly reducing spreadsheets, cut down on reconciliation work, speed up the month-end close, and better manage your remote team.

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Podcast links: the future of psychedelics

Abnormal Returns

The biz Where the podcast advertising market sits going into 2023. (theverge.com) The best fake podcasts of 2022 including 'Only Murders in the Building.' (vulture.com) Finance Barry Ritholtz talks with Charlie Ellis about his new book "Inside Vanguard: Leadership Secrets From the Company That Continues to Rewrite the Rules of the Investing Business.

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Some Stuff That (Probably) Won’t Happen in 2023

A Wealth of Common Sense

I’ve been getting a lot of pundit outlook pieces for 2023 in my inbox these past few weeks. The onset of a new year is a time for making lists of predictions, surprises and black swan possibilities. There are few sure things when it comes to the markets so I don’t put a lot of stock into predictions. You could say the stock market will open at 9:30 am est and close at 4 pm est during regular market hours but t.

Marketing 116
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Question #10 for 2023: Will inventory increase further in 2023?

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Question #10 for 2023: Will inventory increase further in 2023? Brief excerpt: Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I’ll post thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on my blog).

Economics 104
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Moving Averages: S&P Down 5.9% in December, Down 19.4% in 2022

Advisor Perspectives

Valid until the market close on January 31, 2023. The S&P 500 closed December with a monthly loss of 5.9% after a gain of 5.4% in November. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, four of five S&P 500 strategies are signaling "cash" — iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury (IEF), Vanguard REIT Index ETF (VNQ), Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI), and Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC) — down from from last month's quintuple "cash" signal.

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Expected Returns to Green Stocks

Alpha Architect

The past decade has seen a dramatic growth in sustainable investing—applying environmental, social and governance (ESG) criteria to investment strategies. Investments considered environmentally friendly are often referred to as “green,” while “brown” denotes the opposite. Important questions for investors are: What are the expected returns to green stocks?

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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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Cannonball Run

The Better Letter

In 1933, factory worker-turned-vaudevillian-turned racer Erwin George “Cannonball” Baker, later commissioner of NASCAR, drove from New York to Los Angeles by car in a supercharged Graham-Paige Blue Streak in 53.5 hours and, in the process, created a record that stood for nearly 40 years and inspired the “ Cannonball Baker Sea-To-Shining-Sea Memorial Trophy Dash ,” better known as the “ The Cannonball Run.” The unsanctioned race traditionally starts from New Yo

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After $18 Trillion Rout, Global Stocks Face More Hurdles in 2023

Advisor Perspectives

More tech tantrums. China’s Covid surge. And above all, no central banks riding to the rescue if things go wrong.

Banking 98
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High Quality Value Investing with a Tactical Twist With Jeff Muhlenkamp

Validea

In this episode, we speak with Jeff Muhlenkamp. Jeff is the manager of the Muhlenkamp Fund, which has managed client money for over three decades. We discuss his approach to finding undervalued securities and the portfolio management process he uses to manage the fund. We also cover the fund’s unique approach to raising cash based on market conditions, the biggest lessons he learned from his father Ron, who originally founded the firm, and how his military training has helped him in the in

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S&P 500 Snapshot: 2022 Ends Down 19.4% YTD

Advisor Perspectives

Despite the rally on Thursday, the S&P 500 is down 25 basis points from yesterday and is down 19.4% YTD. The index is about 20% below its record close - so really in bear territory. Will we see a Santa Rally in the first two weeks of 2023?

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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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Highlights of Heckerling

Wealth Management

Wednesday, February 01, 2023 | 2:00 PM Eastern Standard Time

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New Retirement Rule Delaying Withdrawals Could Bite

Advisor Perspectives

Wealthy retirees seem to have scored big in Congress’ sweeping year-end spending package.

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A Reckoning Over Junk Bonds Is Coming

Validea

As interest rates have crept up, they’ve begun to highlight which businesses can be sustained for the long run and which ones are built on cheap money. That separation will become even starker in 2023, contends an article in Bloomberg. Quick Links Validea Special Discount Offer Top Value Stocks in Today’s Market Choose from 20+ Actionable Model Portfolios – View Portfolios.

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Distressed Investing Is Back. These Trades Are Defining the Game

Advisor Perspectives

Savvy investors seized tightening credit markets this year to reshape the distressed investing playing field just as more companies look destined for default in 2023.

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Transforming Lending: Understanding the Power of Digital Platforms

Digital platforms can provide you with plenty of solutions, yet many are still intimidated by them. It's time to end that worry and embrace what could make a major difference for your bank. Understanding how they work and how to best utilize them for your banks is key toward success. In this article, Biz2X breaks down all things digital platforms, including the many advantages of embracing them.

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How Buffett Beat The Market This Year

Validea

While the S&P 500 has fallen over 15% this year, shares of Warren Buffett’s conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway are up roughly 5.5% for the year, fueled by its large stake in energy companies Chevron and Occidental, reports an article in CNN. Oil stocks skyrocketed this year as a result of elevated crude prices in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Occidental’s shares have more than doubled, making it the top winner in the S&P 500.

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COVID Dec 30, 2022: Update on Cases, Hospitalizations and Deaths

Calculated Risk

On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths). Data is now weekly. Weekly deaths bottomed in July 2021 at 1,666. COVID Metrics Now Week Ago Goal New Cases per Week 2 402,525 486,627 ≤35,000 1 Hospitalized 2 ? 34,116 33,788 ≤3,000 1 Deaths per Week 2 2,530 2,932 ≤350 1 1 my goals to stop weekly posts, 2 Weekly for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths ?

Numbers 52
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Wall Street Missed The Bear Market

Validea

Wall Street analysts were fairly accurate in their predictions of S&P 500 companies’ 2022 corporate earnings but missed this year’s bear market completely, contends an article in The Wall Street Journal. Strategists for Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Citigroup forecast earnings within $1, the narrowest estimate since 1995, according to data from Refinitiv IBES cited in the article.

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Gold 2023 Outlook: Recession and Rates to Remain in Focus

Advisor Perspectives

George Milling-Stanley of State Street Global Advisors provides his outlook for gold in 2023, as well as the specific headwinds and tailwinds he expect to drive price activity moving forward.

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Your New & Improved Month-End Close Process Is Not So Far Out of Reach!

All accounting teams know what it is like to dread the inevitable month-end scaries. If there was a way to feel less burdened and maybe even a little enthusiastic to work on your month-end close and reconciliation process, would you do it? No, don't answer that, of course you would! Automate your month-end close process by up to 40% with SkyStem's ART and see how much more alive you feel!

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Hedge Funds Have Their “Hedge” Back

Validea

The last several years have seen lackluster performances from hedge funds—in 2021, they only returned about 10.3% while the S&P 500 returned almost 27%. And given their high fees, it’s no wonder they had fallen out of favor. But given the shift in market conditions this year, hedge funds may be on a rebound, reports an article in Yahoo! Finance.

Banking 59
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Yardeni Says Stock Bulls Have 'Narrow Path' to Victory in 2023

Advisor Perspectives

Stock market bulls have a “narrow path” to victory next year as long as inflation comes down faster than expected, according to Ed Yardeni, founder of his namesake research firm.

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How to become a Financial Advisor

Conneqtor

What is a Financial Advisor and tips to become one What is a financial advisor? Unfortunately, the “financial advisor” term has many meanings. It has been thrown around so much and used in so many different ways that not only does our profession struggle to define it, consumers do as well.

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Chicago PMI Rises in December

Advisor Perspectives

The Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index, or the Chicago Business Barometer, rose to 44.9 in December from 37.2 in November, which is still in contraction territory. It has spent 1/3 of 2022 in contraction territory. Values above 50.0 indicate expanding manufacturing activity.

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The Blueprint for a Customer-Centric Digital Lending Experience

Creating a winning digital lending experience requires plenty of focus on the needs of customers and more. Biz2X Chief Product Officer Aaron Traub covers everything from how to create such an experience, areas to hone in on, pitfalls to avoid, and plenty more in this insightful article. Discover how to utilize new technology without alienating existing customers, what to emphasize when working on your platform, and how to utilize the data at your disposal while not becoming overly reliant on it.

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Active Investing Will Be On The Rise in 2023

Validea

Active management will become more popular next year, as well as custom strategies for those investors who want to have more control over where their money goes, contends an article in Yahoo! Finance. Direct indexing assets, currently at $462 billion, are expected to rise up to $825 billion by 2026, according to Cerulli Associates data that is cited in the article, making its growth forecast the biggest out of ETFs, mutual funds, and separately managed accounts.

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US Bond Performance Shows Fed Isn't Behind the Curve

Advisor Perspectives

Back in March, “the Fed is behind the curve” was the prevailing narrative of too little, too late when it came to containing inflation.

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How to help LGBTQ+ clients plan their financial futures

Nationwide Financial

Key Takeaways: It’s important to be aware that throughout history, LGBTQ+ individuals have had to fight hard for their rights and protections to feel safer at home among family and friends, as well as at work among their colleagues. The LGBTQ+ community gained protection under the Civil Rights Act of 1964 through the United States Supreme Court’s Bostock v Clayton decision, which was issued on June 15, 2020.1.

Clients 52