Sat.Sep 10, 2022

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10 Weekend Reads

The Big Picture

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of Volcanica coffee, grab a seat on the aisle, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads: • An economist studied popular finance tips. Some might be leading you astray : Thinkfluencers versus economists: Economists may know a lot about how people should act. But, as an empirically minded behavioral economists, we recognize that people don’t act this way.

Math 307
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Saturday links: impostor syndrome

Abnormal Returns

Autos Transitioning to EVs is more complicated than simply stop selling ICEs. (bloomberg.com) The luxury auto business is still doing just fine. (nytimes.com) EVs still have a cold weather problem. (ft.com) EV charging stations need to get easier to use. (engadget.com) Environment Shane Shifflett, "(C)ompanies looking to offset their emissions are buying credits in vast numbers that do little to help neutralize their carbon output.

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MiB: Kristen Bitterly Michell, Citi Global Wealth

The Big Picture

This week, we speak with Kristen Bitterly Michell, Head of North American Investments for Citi Global Wealth, which manages $800 billion in client assets. Previously, she was Head of Structured Solutions at Citi. Prior to joining Citi, she led structured product sales to Latin American investors at Credit Suisse and provided structured derivative solutions to private investor clients at JPMorgan.

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How the Fed Screwed Up the Housing Market

A Wealth of Common Sense

I’m not a fan of blaming the Fed for everything you don’t like about the markets or the economy. Markets have always been rigged or manipulated. Truly free markets are a pipe dream. You have to invest in the markets as they are, not as you wish them to be. Having said that, the Fed deserves some blame for what’s going on in the housing market.

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Register Now: Sneak Peek Into Close Automation SkyStem Web Demo

Technology is rapidly changing the way accountants perform and manage month-end activities. Spreadsheets, email, and shared drives no longer have to slow us down. Join us as we present a "sneak peek" recorded demo of SkyStem's month-end close solution – ART. In under four weeks, your team can start reaping the benefits of month-end close automation by vastly reducing spreadsheets, cut down on reconciliation work, speed up the month-end close, and better manage your remote team.

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Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week

Calculated Risk

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: • 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in August • Homebuilder Comments in August: Increased Incentives Helping Sales • Black Knight Mortgage Monitor: "Total market leverage was just 42% of mortgaged homes’ values, the lowest on record" • Lawler: Are “National” Home Prices Already Falling? • The Sharp Slowdown in Year-over-year House Price Growth This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing

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AAR: August Rail Carloads Up Year-over-year, Intermodal Down

Calculated Risk

From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission. If you were expecting August rail traffic to provide a definitive statement regarding the state of the economy, well, get used to disappointment. As in June and July, rail traffic in August was relatively evenly balanced between categories with carload gains and those with declines. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image.

Economy 94
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Whitney Baker, Totem Macro – Put Down (The Best Investment Writing Volume 6)

Meb Faber Research

Whitney Baker, Totem Macro – Put Down (The Best Investment Writing Volume 6) Author: Whitney Baker is the founder of Totem Macro, which leverages extensive prior buyside experience to create unique research insights for an exclusive client-base of some of the world’s preeminent investors. Previously, Whitney worked for Bridgewater Associates as Head of Emerging Markets and […].

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Q3 GDP Tracking: Just Over 1%

Calculated Risk

From BofA: We updated our 3Q US GDP (Gross Domestic Product) [1.1% q/q saar] tracking estimate from July trade data, where the narrowing of the trade deficit to $70.6bn was broadly in line with our expectation, although the goods deficit was revised slightly higher from the advance estimate. Net trade is poised to make a substantial contribution to growth in 3Q.

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Head Nodders and Recency Bias

Dear Mr. Market

Dear Mr. Market: “In the business world the rearview mirror is always clearer than the windshield.” Everyone following the markets is aware that we’re dealing with global economic stresses, a bottle necked supply chain, geopolitical tensions, 40 year highs with inflation, rising rates, and literally the worst start to a stock market year since 1970.

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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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Neuberger Berman to Convert Its Only US Commodity Fund Into ETF

Wealth Management

The $233 million Neuberger Berman Commodity Strategy Fund (NRBAX) is set to become an active, fully transparent ETF in the fourth quarter of 2022.

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Schedule for Week of September 11, 2022

Calculated Risk

The key economic reports this week are August Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Retail Sales. For manufacturing, August Industrial Production, and the September New York and Philly Fed surveys, will be released this week. -- Monday, Sept 12th -- No major economic releases scheduled. -- Tuesday, Sept 13th -- 6:00 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for August. 8:30 AM: The Consumer Price Index for August from the BLS.

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COVID Sept 9, 2022, Update on Cases, Hospitalizations and Deaths

Calculated Risk

On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths): COVID Metrics Now Week Ago Goal New Cases per Day 2 67,400 85,866 ?5,000 1 Hospitalized 2 28,999 31,368 ?3,000 1 Deaths per Day 2 318 435 ?50 1 1 my goals to stop daily posts, 2 7-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths ?? Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ?

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