Tue.Feb 14, 2023

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Alien Invasion!!!

The Big Picture

Over the weekend, a NATO general was asked by a bright-eyed reporter whether or not the various flying objects that were being shot down might be aliens visiting from elsewhere in the galaxy. His throwaway response of “ We don’t rule anything out ” was sufficiently ambiguous to set the conspiracy theorists atwitter. “Of course, they dropped this during the Superbowl, when no one’s paying attention,” was the LOL tweet.

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Tuesday links: investing humility

Abnormal Returns

Crypto The SEC continues to push back against crypto companies. (bloomberg.com) Susquehanna Advisors Group and Citadel Securities have reported stakes in crypto-friendly bank Silvergate Capital ($SI). (theblock.co) Everyone is lining up to try to close the NAV discount for the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ($GBTC). (wired.com) Spotify Spotify ($SPOT) invested big in podcasting and is struggling to make it all work.

Investing 225
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The “No Landing” Scenario

The Reformed Broker

Join Downtown Josh Brown and Michael Batnick for another round of What Are Your Thoughts? On this week’s episode, Josh and Michael discuss the biggest topics in investing and finance, including: ►A Strengthening consumer – “January expected household income drop was greatest in survey history” ►The “No Landing” Scenario – “The remarkable momentum in consumer spending an.

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Research links: mean-variance thinking

Abnormal Returns

Crypto Contrary to earlier hopes, Bitcoin is now just a risk-on asset. (institutionalinvestor.com) On the existence of cross-asset momentum in crypto assets. (papers.ssrn.com) Research The value premium is still pretty wide. (alphaarchitect.com) The presence of smart beta investors reduces the return to notable factors. (papers.ssrn.com) Why 'submergence risk' is a better measure of risk.

Assets 130
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Register Now: Sneak Peek Into Close Automation SkyStem Web Demo

Technology is rapidly changing the way accountants perform and manage month-end activities. Spreadsheets, email, and shared drives no longer have to slow us down. Join us as we present a "sneak peek" recorded demo of SkyStem's month-end close solution – ART. In under four weeks, your team can start reaping the benefits of month-end close automation by vastly reducing spreadsheets, cut down on reconciliation work, speed up the month-end close, and better manage your remote team.

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#FA Success Ep 320: Navigating Hyper-Growth To Achieve Platform Scale For Independent Advisors, With Jim Dickson

Nerd's Eye View

Welcome back to the 320th episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Jim Dickson. Jim is the CEO and Founder of Sanctuary Wealth, an RIA platform with 80 partner firms in 29 states that collectively oversee nearly $25 billion in assets under management. What's unique about Jim, though, is how he has built an RIA platform approaching $25B in AUM in just 5 years, and the way he’s managed everything from hiring and staffing to raising outside investor ca

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Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.7% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.6% in January

Calculated Risk

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI: According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.7% in January. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.6% in January. "The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report".

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10 Years of A Wealth of Common Sense

A Wealth of Common Sense

I started A Wealth of Common Sense 10 years ago. Before ever hitting the publish button on my first piece, I created a list of topics and blog posts to write about. Based on that list I thought this blog might last 6 months max. I certainly didn’t think I would still be writing on a regular basis a decade later. And never in my wildest dreams did I think starting a blog would completely change my career trajectory a.

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Private Assets Like CRE Can Create a ‘New’ 60-40 Model for Portfolios

Wealth Management

Investments like real estate and other private markets can generally weather difficult market conditions better than their more liquid counterparts and, over the long run, have historically provided higher returns and lower volatility.

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BLS: CPI increased 0.5% in January; Core CPI increased 0.4%

Calculated Risk

From the BLS : The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.5 percent in January on a seasonally adjusted basis , after increasing 0.1 percent in December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 6.4 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for shelter was by far the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase, accounting for nearly half of the monthly all items increase, with the indexes for foo

Food 108
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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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10 Must Reads for CRE Investors Today (Feb. 15, 2023)

Wealth Management

The Mortgage Bankers Association has lowered its 2023 forecast for commercial mortgage production, predicting a 15 percent decline. Kroger and Albertsons will sell off 300 stores in order to complete their merger, reports GlobeSt.com. These are among today’s must reads from around the commercial real estate industry.

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Current State of the Housing Market: Overview for mid-February

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Current State of the Housing Market: Overview for mid-February A brief excerpt: Here is a graph of new listing from Realtor.com’s January Housing Trends Report showing new listings were down about 5% year-over-year in January. Although new listings are at a record low for January, the year-over-year decline was smaller in January than in Q4 2022.

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: Herbalife stock bounces back even as earnings and revenue continue to decline

MarketWatch

Herbalife Nutrition Ltd. HLF shares gained in after-hours trading Tuesday, after the company reported a strong earnings beat in its first quarter with a former chief executive back in charge. Herbalife reported fourth-quarter net income of $54.4 million, or 55 cents a share, on net sales of $1.18 billion, down from $1.32 billion in the holiday season a year ago.

Sales 98
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Core CPI ex-Shelter declines to 3.9% YoY

Calculated Risk

The good news is that inflation has clearly peaked. And since rents are falling faster than seasonally normal - due to the pandemic related changes in household formation - it makes sense for the short term to use core CPI ex-shelter. NOTE: There was a surge in household formation during the pandemic, pushing up rents sharply, and now household formation has slowed sharply just as more supply will be coming on the market.

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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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: U.S. stock futures whipsaw, Treasury yields decline after January inflation report

MarketWatch

U.S. stock futures whipsawed Tuesday following the release of the January consumer-price index, which showed that inflation continued to moderate last month, but not as quickly as economists had expected. Futures for the S&P 500 were marginally lower at 4,146 in recent trade, while futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average were marginally higher at 34,282.

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FARE helps Black financial professionals thrive

Nationwide Financial

Key Takeaways Underrepresentation of minority financial professionals has long been a challenge in the industry. To advance actionable solutions and contribute to lasting change, Nationwide partnered in September 2020 with leading financial services organizations, associations and historically Black colleges and universities (HBCUs ) to form The Financial Alliance for Racial Equity℠, or FARE.

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Biden says CPI report shows U.S. has made progress on inflation and 'on the right track'

MarketWatch

President Joe Biden on Tuesday said a fresh report on the consumer price index reflected progress but there was still more work to do. "Today's data reinforces that we have made historic progress and are on the right track, and now we need to finish the job," he said in a statement. The CPI rose 0.5% in January, but the annual rate of increase fell a tick to 6.4%.

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Animal Spirits: When Money Becomes a Liability

The Irrelevant Investor

Today’s Animal Spirits is brought to you by Kelly ETFs: See here for more information on Kelly ETFs and here for our prior conversation with Kevin Kelly, Founder, and CEO of Kelly ETFs on CRISPR Technology. On today’s show, we discuss: Rush into meme stocks, zero-day options fuels latest frenzy in the Wall Street casino Why investors are piling into funds that promise not to beat the stock market The costs of.

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Transforming Lending: Understanding the Power of Digital Platforms

Digital platforms can provide you with plenty of solutions, yet many are still intimidated by them. It's time to end that worry and embrace what could make a major difference for your bank. Understanding how they work and how to best utilize them for your banks is key toward success. In this article, Biz2X breaks down all things digital platforms, including the many advantages of embracing them.

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U.S. stocks open lower after CPI data show January inflation slightly hotter than anticipated

MarketWatch

U.S. stocks opened lower Tuesday as investors parse data from the consumer-price-index showing inflation in January was slightly hotter than anticipated even as the year-over-year rate continued to decline. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.3% soon after the opening bell, while the S&P 500 fell 0.5% and the technology-laden Nasdaq Composite shed 0.7%, according to FactSet data, at last check.

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Focus Shareholders ‘Frustrated’ by PE Firm’s Offer

Wealth Management

Some shareholders say the $4.1 billion price tag for Focus Financial is too low and doesn’t reflect the trajectory and future of the business—and many hope for a way to remain invested.

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6-month T-bill rate surpasses 5% as Treasury yield curve goes more negative following January inflation data

MarketWatch

The 6-month T-bill rate rose past 5% on Tuesday after the U.S. consumer price index report for January showed inflation to be sticky and slowing grudgingly. Meanwhile, the 1-year T-bill rate inched closer to the 5% level, at 4.99%, while the policy-sensitive 2-year rate rose to 4.6%. Rates on shorter-term Treasurys rose at a faster pace than on their longer-term counterparts, sending the Treasury curve more deeply negative.

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America's Priciest Neighborhoods Are Changing as the Ultra-Rich Move to Florida

Wealth Management

Real estate values in wealthy neighborhoods are reflecting broader pandemic migration.

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Quick Start Guide to a Crystal Clear Close

Did you know automating your month-end close can save up to 40% of the time typically spent on manual reconciliations? CFOs and controllers are leveraging SkyStem's workflow management and reconciliation tool to eliminate costly mistakes, ditch manual reconciliations and close faster. Want to know how they do it? Download our Quick Start Guide to a Crystal Clear Close!

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Break a slump by establishing momentum

Million Dollar Round Table (MDRT)

By Mike Beirne, MDRT Round the Table editor At some point in their careers, advisors hit a slump. So how do you get out of this rut? An MDRT member shares what he did to rebound. Steven Yam Seng Yee, CIAM, ChFC, a 26-year MDRT member from Singapore, recalls a slump when he was only halfway toward requalifying for MDRT with two months left in the year.

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A New Evolution For ETFs Looks Hopeful, With Caveats

Wealth Management

A new ETF share class would do away with the cumbersome path of converting mutual funds into ETFs, but experts say the SEC will take a cautious approach.

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: Avaya files for bankruptcy, about 5 years after emerging from previous bankruptcy

MarketWatch

Avaya Holdings Corp. said Tuesday that it and all of its U.S. subsidiaries filed for bankruptcy, a little more than five years after emerging from its previous bankruptcy. The business communication company said it entered a financial restructuring agreement that will reduce its debt by more than 75%, from $3.4 billion to about $800 million. The company said it has secured about $780 million in financing, including $628 million in debtor-in-possession financing, that will allow it to operate its

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Discount Retailer Tuesday Morning Files for Bankruptcy Again

Wealth Management

The Dallas-based discount retailer filed in the Northern District of Texas, listing assets and liabilities of $100 million to $500 million, in its bankruptcy petition. It emerged from its last bankruptcy in January 2021 after closing about 200 stores, cutting its employee headcount and slashing debt.

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The Blueprint for a Customer-Centric Digital Lending Experience

Creating a winning digital lending experience requires plenty of focus on the needs of customers and more. Biz2X Chief Product Officer Aaron Traub covers everything from how to create such an experience, areas to hone in on, pitfalls to avoid, and plenty more in this insightful article. Discover how to utilize new technology without alienating existing customers, what to emphasize when working on your platform, and how to utilize the data at your disposal while not becoming overly reliant on it.

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: Coca-Cola beats revenue mark and provides upbeat outlook, stock rises

MarketWatch

Coca-Cola Co. KO stock rose 0.9% in premarket trades after the soft drinks maker topped revenue expectations and provided an upbeat profit growth outlook. Coca-Cola said its fourth-quarter net income fell to $2.03 billion, or 47 cents a share, from $2.41 billion, or 56 cents a share, in the year-ago period. Excluding nonrecurring items, adjusted earnings per share of 45 cents matched year-ago results and the FactSet consensus.

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RIA Edge Podcast: Behind the Scenes of RIA M&A With Emigrant's Karl Heckenberg

Wealth Management

The CEO and president of Emigrant Partners discuses the rise of minority investors and how they're re-shaping the RIA landscape.

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: Peabody Energy stock surges after reporting big profit and revenue beats and says it is prepping a shareholder return program

MarketWatch

Shares of Peabody Energy Corp. BTU surged 4.0% in premarket trading Tuesday, after the coal miner reported fourth-quarter profit and revenue that rose well above expectations, recorded record free cash flow and said it repaid all remaining senior secured debt. Net income climbed to $632.0 million, or $3.92 a share, from $375.1 million, or $2.33 a share, in the year-ago period.