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Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. economy will likely perform in 2025, and if there are surprises - like in 2020 with the pandemic - to adjust my thinking. There is also the potential for significant policy mistakes, but for now I'm assuming any policy changes will not significantly impact the economy in 2025.
Fed's Beige Book Economic activity rose slightly in most Districts. Though growth in economic activity was generally small, expectations for growth rose moderately across most geographies and sectors. Three regions exhibited modest or moderate growth that offset flat or slightly declining activity in two others.
Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on this blog). How much will the economy grow in 2025?
Fed's Beige Book Economic activity increased slightly to moderately across the twelve Federal Reserve Districts in late November and December. Consumer spending moved up moderately, with most Districts reporting strong holiday sales that exceeded expectations. Vehicle sales grew modestly. Commercial real estate sales edged up.
Early in February , I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. Here is an update to a graph that uses new home sales, single family housing starts and residential investment. (I
Early in February , I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. Also, perhaps these tariffs are not enough to topple the economy. Trade should not be a weapon.
Early in February , I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. Also, perhaps these tariffs are not enough to topple the economy. I prefer single family starts to total starts).
Early in February , I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. Also, perhaps the tariffs are not enough to topple the economy. Trade should not be a weapon.”
jeffreyptak.substack.com) Global China is more diverse (economic) than you think. propublica.org) Economy Retail sales are decelerating. calculatedriskblog.com) More signs the economy is weakening. (morningstar.com) People are not dumping target date funds willy-nilly. paulkrugman.substack.com) The U.S.
Recession-proof businesses are more than just smart, they’re essential when economic uncertainty hits. But while the economy slows, certain businesses remain steady, and some even thrive. But while the economy slows, certain businesses remain steady, and some even thrive. Thats where recession-resistant businesses come in.
How should investors view the relationship between trade policy and inflation in the current economic environment? Gwinn Professor of Economics Masters in Business (coming soon) ~~~ Find all of the previous At the Money episodes here , and in the MiB feed on Apple Podcasts , YouTube , Spotify , and Bloomberg. What was it about?
Key takeaways: Economic activity was downshifted by mid-year, with elevated interest rates and inflation fatigue weighing on consumer and business spending behavior. economy should post more modest growth in the second half of 2024 as interest rate and inflation headwinds build for consumers.
wsj.com) Black Friday sales are now more annoying than ever. nytimes.com) Economy The Russian Ruble is tumbling in value. sherwood.news) Five economic reasons to be thankful including 'Low unemployment claims. (ft.com) BlackRock ($BLK) reportedly has a deal to buy HPS Investment Partners, a private credit manager.
sherwood.news) Kirkland is a growing share of Costco ($COST) sales. calculatedriskblog.com) Economy How rising government debt levels affect borrowing rates. marginalrevolution.com) What economically resilient cities have in common: an educated workforce. wsj.com) Work Men are more likely to return to the office.
Global Financial Data ) Vanguard 2025 economic and market outlook : The global monetary easing cycle will be in full swing in 2025, with inflation in most developed economies now within touching distance of central banks targets. economy, while other economies have been less lucky. Luxury car sales fell 27%.
1 Originally composed of 12 companies, the DJIA looked to reflect the major sectors of the late 19th-century American economy. economy at the turn of the last century. economy and stock market over time. economy dominated by manufacturing and heavy industry to one more diversified into services and technology.
bigtechnology.com) EconomySales of existing homes in the US hit their lowest level since 1995. calculatedriskblog.com) Earlier on Abnormal Returns Podcast links: basic economics. (sherwood.news) Are AI companies wasting money? cnn.com) It looks like there was a stockpiling effect at the end of 2024.
Describes how what is happening to the economy is bigger than tariffs, it is the business cycle. It includes a comment on the FOMC meeting tomorrow, uses economic data up through this morning (retail sales), and includes a nice cartoon which can be used as a thumbnail (below).
The NBER defines a recession as A significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months. Yes, it does appear that the economy is softening, but we don’t need to go declaring recession just yet. And so far that’s not the case.
msn.com) How big a disappointment are Apple ($AAPL) VIsion Pro sales? statnews.com) Economy Where does economic growth come from? conversableeconomist.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. (humbledollar.com) Companies How did Boeing ($BA) go so wrong? npr.org) How the alcohol lobby has kept higher taxes at bay.
Economic Update: Fed Meeting: Rates held steady. Retail Sales (May): Overall sales were affected by a sharp drop in auto sales (post-March tariff surge). Retail Sales (May): Overall sales were affected by a sharp drop in auto sales (post-March tariff surge). Economies and markets fluctuate.
Economic Update: Retail Sales: Weaker than expected in January. Economic Surprise Index: Declined over the last 4-5 weeks from high levels. Outlook: Economy is in a soft patch, but if policy and geopolitical risks remain stable, markets could digest recent volatility. Economies and markets fluctuate.
(cnbc.com) Global Trudeau's economic record in Canada is disappointing. russell-clark.com) Economy The December NFP reported showed strong growth and a 4.1% economy continues to slow. wsj.com) Don't start a company if you don't want to do sales. noahpinion.blog) Do Russians really support the war in Ukraine?
Economic Update: Inflation (March): CPI: ~2.4%, lower than expected. Next Week: Retail Sales data. Opinions expressed by Zoe Financial are based on economic or market conditions at the time this material was written. Economies and markets fluctuate. PPI: 2.6%, also better than expected. Fed meeting (Wednesday).
If the average sale price of rental houses in your area goes up but the tenant keeps paying you the same amount forever, it may look good on paper but it doesnt really mean anything unless you sell the house. . Later, reality sunk in that this was just a fad and Peloton sales returned back to normal levels, and so did the stock.
Retail sales data, which give us a sense of how the consumer spending is looking. Opinions expressed by Zoe Financial are based on economic or market conditions at the time this material was written. Economies and markets fluctuate. Actual economic or market events may turn out differently than anticipated.
Weekly Market Insights | November 4th, 2024 Stocks Retreat on Jobs and Election Concerns Stocks slid last week as mixed economic data and strong-but-not-spectacular Q3 corporate reports failed to inspire investors. This Week: Key Economic Data Monday: Motor Vehicle Sales. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 1.36
Equity markets in the US also hit record levels due to ease of geopolitical tensions, dovish fed and trade developments, but economic data released in early July for Q1 2025 (Jan-Mar) presents a mixed picture. In Q1’25 US Economy contracted at a rate of 0.5% annual rate, the first negative reading since Q1 2022.
But I was in institutional sales and I would go around from one investor to another, to another, to another, to another. Now, this wonderful section in this little bitty book that I’ve just finished, wonderful section on behavioral economics, terrific book by Daniel Kahneman, thinking Fast, thinking Slow. It’s a mania.
Economic Update: When economic data comes in hotter than expected: Stock markets tend to sell off. Fed Rate Cuts Outlook : Expectations for further rate cuts have decreased as the economy remains strong. A reaccelerating economy supports continued earnings growth, benefiting the market overall. Retails Sales data.
4,5 Stocks dropped again on Friday as strong October retail sales seemed to reinforce Powell’s comments about Fed rate adjustments. Ironically, strong retail sales numbers—while a sign of a strong economy—send a mixed message to investors. This Week: Key Economic Data Monday: Fed Official Austan Goolsbee speaks.
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You can dance around emotionally charged issues like politics, the economy, the stock market and your love life for only so long before your cranky uncle decides to shatter the cordial air with a five-minute rant about the state of the world. About 40% of their sales come from overseas. Ever heard of ChatGPT? Never mind.
However, shifting economic conditions, a potential rate-cut cycle, and valuation opportunities have created a renewed focus on small and mid-cap stocks, particularly in financials and energy. This bracket focuses on who benefits most when the Russia-Ukraine war ends and economic rebuilding begins.
stocks edged higher on Thursday, supported by encouraging economic data and solid corporate earnings. The market rally reflected growing investor confidence in the strength of the economy despite ongoing global uncertainties. Retail sales rose 0.6% economic data and solid corporate earnings helped ease concerns over tariffs.
How that plays out in the courts and the economy is as yet unknown. There are economic risks, market risks, systemic factors, currency risks, constitutional questions, and ultimately, the standing of the United States as a global superpower and ally. The first month of Trump 2.0 I am not blas about radical change. and its allies.
dollar Rising interest rates due to foreign debt sales Doubts over the U.S. Issues are More Gray Than Black or White Journalists – most of whom have little investing experience – like to authoritatively paint economic issues in black-or-white terms. Suffice it to say, the media headlines were horrific during this period.
Now, suddenly, I look up from this focus and realize that there’s too much money to be made from too many gullible investors and sales-focused advisors for anybody to have standards. The basic idea behind alts, as I see it, is to create vehicles that would invest in more interesting areas of the economy than stocks and bonds.
However, if you normalize inventory by sales (months of supply at the current sales pace), inventory looks normal. S&P 500 – A capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
As always, I lead with Wall Street, the markets, and the economy, the objects of my day job. Morgan Stanley’s Chief Economic Strategist blew her call , too. The most bullish call in Sam Ro’s compilation was 5,500, up nearly 20 percent, by Capital Economics. ” In 2024, e-commerce sales totaled about $6.3
But before we get to that, let’s start with Bachelor’s in economics from Hamilton, MBA from NYU. And a friend of mine who had gotten fired from this economic consulting firm, got a job at Chase Econometrics, IDC, and said, you have to come over here. Barry Ritholtz : I’m, I’m thrilled to have you.
Investors fear prolonged economic friction between the allies. ” He complained about Japanese car and rice sales. Markets clearly see the tariffs harming Japan’s export-reliant economy. The path forward remains fraught with economic risk. This move directly targets Japan’s vital auto and tech sectors.
Economic Update: Walmart Earnings : Reported lower-than-expected sales guidance, indicating potential weakness in U.S. Retail Sales Report : Previous week’s data showed signs of weakness. Opinions expressed by Zoe Financial are based on economic or market conditions at the time this material was written.
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