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Ten Economic Questions for 2025

Calculated Risk

Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. economy will likely perform in 2025, and if there are surprises - like in 2020 with the pandemic - to adjust my thinking. There is also the potential for significant policy mistakes, but for now I'm assuming any policy changes will not significantly impact the economy in 2025.

Economics 290
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Fed's Beige Book: "Economic activity rose slightly"

Calculated Risk

Fed's Beige Book Economic activity rose slightly in most Districts. Though growth in economic activity was generally small, expectations for growth rose moderately across most geographies and sectors. Three regions exhibited modest or moderate growth that offset flat or slightly declining activity in two others.

Economics 278
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Question #1 for 2025: How much will the economy grow in 2025? Will there be a recession in 2025?

Calculated Risk

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on this blog). How much will the economy grow in 2025?

Economy 173
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Fed's Beige Book: "Economic activity increased slightly to moderately"

Calculated Risk

Fed's Beige Book Economic activity increased slightly to moderately across the twelve Federal Reserve Districts in late November and December. Consumer spending moved up moderately, with most Districts reporting strong holiday sales that exceeded expectations. Vehicle sales grew modestly. Commercial real estate sales edged up.

Economics 162
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Housing Starts and Recessions

Calculated Risk

Early in February , I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. Here is an update to a graph that uses new home sales, single family housing starts and residential investment. (I

Sales 309
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Recession Watch Metrics

Calculated Risk

Early in February , I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. Also, perhaps these tariffs are not enough to topple the economy. Trade should not be a weapon.

Sales 214
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Recession Watch Metrics

Calculated Risk

Early in February , I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. Also, perhaps these tariffs are not enough to topple the economy. I prefer single family starts to total starts).

Sales 241