Nerd's Eye View

APRIL 3, 2024

With a plethora of interdependent and ever-changing parts, gaining a clear (or even not-terribly-fuzzy) understanding of where the economy stands at any given moment is a daunting task, to say the least. Meanwhile, a smorgasbord of potential risks threatens economic growth's "soft landing" narrative.

Economics 243

Economics Marketing Marketing Valuation 243

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 5, 2024

economy may be dampening demand and price appreciation. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the economy added just 12,000 jobs in October 2024, the fewest in almost four years. Like much of the housing market at the moment, home prices remained relatively flat coming into the fall,” said CoreLogic Chief Economist Selma Hepp.

Economy 254

Economy Numbers Economics Marketing 254

Nerd's Eye View

JANUARY 3, 2024

The sentiment is especially poignant when it comes to economic forecasting, as it's nearly impossible to get an accurate picture of the current state of the economy at any given moment. As a result, uncertainty about how the economy may unfold, even along the shortest time frames, is the default.

Economics 246

Economics Marketing Marketing Economy 246

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 17, 2025

(forbes.com) Economy Danny Crichton talks with Byrne Hobart and Tobias Huber authors of the new book "Boom: Bubbles and the End of Stagnation." podcasts.apple.com) Katie Gatti Tassin talks about the economics of weight loss drugs. youtube.com) Stephen Dubner on the crisis facing residential real estate brokers.

Economics 162

Economics Economy Investing Investments 162

The Big Picture

JUNE 17, 2024

They are based on historical data that looks at 200 Years of Market Concentration. As the chart above shows, there are long periods of market concentration. These reflect the economic dominance of one specific part of the economy or another for very long periods of time. You might be surprised at the findings.

Marketing 316

Marketing Marketing Engineering Economics 316

The Big Picture

JANUARY 2, 2025

This is true about equity and bond markets, specific company stocks, and economic data series. ” As the chart above shows, all the major Wall Street brokerage and bank strategists failed to anticipate how well the market would do in 2024 (Bloomberg’s chart below). One last reminder: All forecasts are marketing.

Banking 345

Banking Planning Economics Investing 345

The Big Picture

APRIL 15, 2025

That amplified the initial market reaction, with a lot of volatility and a significant drawdown. Whatever comes next seems random and driven by individual whimsor the bond market vigilantes. Think of this as the discounting function of the markets, assessing a range of corporate revenues and profits over the next four quarters.

Economics 318

Economics Economy Communication Marketing 318

Abnormal Returns

JULY 19, 2024

(infiniteloopspodcast.com) Real estate Derek Thompson talks with Mike Simonsen, president and founder of Altos Research, and Lance Lambert, cofounder and editor-in-chief of Residential Club, about the state of the American housing market. theringer.com) Julia LaRoche talks with Tyler Cowen about how AI will change society and the economy.

Economics 261

Economics Startup Communication Economy 261

Abnormal Returns

MAY 11, 2025

Markets The impact of macro events can take longer than you think. humbledollar.com) 2025 is not that unusual stock-market wise. marginalrevolution.com) Economy How much economic activity got pulled forward due to tariffs? tker.co) The economic data hasn't rolled over yet into recession.

Marketing 147

Marketing Marketing Economics Media 147

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 14, 2024

From Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook. Excerpt: The recent performance of our economy has been remarkably good, by far the best of any major economy in the world. Economic output grew by more than 3 percent last year and is expanding at a stout 2.5 percent rate so far this year. emphasis added

Economy 147

Economy Economics Marketing Marketing 147

A Wealth of Common Sense

JANUARY 21, 2025

One of my favorite ongoing economic stats is the fact that the U.S. economy has been in a recession for just two months out of the past 15-and-a-half years. economy has been remarkably resilient throughout the 2010s and 2020s. Sure, there have been some bumps along the way but the U.S.

Economy 136

Economy Marketing Marketing Economics 136

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 27, 2024

Markets Jeff Somer, "Hedging and prediction markets are certainly worth knowing about, but for financial well-being, I believe that straightforward strategies are superior for most of us — as long as the great U.S. tker.co) The problem with broad emerging market indices. experiment endures." is booming.

Financial Advising 293

Financial Advising Economics Media Economy 293

Nerd's Eye View

OCTOBER 4, 2023

People often talk about "the economy" as a single entity whose parts move in unison, with a small number of key indicators (such as GDP, the unemployment rate, and inflation) moving reliably in relation to each other. manufacturing sector, by the measures of employment and service prices, has been in a recession for nearly 12 months.

Valuation 246

Valuation Economics Economy Marketing 246

Wealth Management

MARCH 21, 2024

Financial advisors’ optimism over the economy and the markets ticked marginally up in February, dampened only by persistent inflation and uncertainty over upcoming national elections.

Economics 289

Economics Financial Advisor Economy Marketing 289

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 8, 2024

thebasispoint.com) Why you can't just talk about 'bonds' as a single market. nytimes.com) Economy The risks of a recession are rising. econbrowser.com) The Fed is always dealing with economic crosscurrents. tker.co) Why economic data is iffier: lower response rates. Rates The yield curve inversion is over.

Marketing 278

Marketing Marketing Financial Advising Economics 278

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 Or will the economy lose jobs? Or will the economy lose jobs? million jobs in 2023. million jobs in 2023.

Economy 298

Economy Manufacturing Economics Sales 298

Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 25, 2022

The overall fall in activity was the second-fastest since May 2020 as inflation, rising borrowing costs and economic uncertainty weighed on demand. The pace of decline in new export orders also gathered momentum, with manufacturing weakness being met by a dwindling service sector performance in external markets. Thanks for Tuning In!

Economy 290

Economy Manufacturing Numbers Sales 290

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 17, 2025

Markets Corrections happen more often than you remember. optimisticallie.com) Market moves just happen faster these days. on.ft.com) Robinhood ($HOOD) is teaming with Kalshi on sports markets. axios.com) Fund management How market concentration affects ETF index construction. paulkrugman.substack.com) The U.S.

Media 195

Media Economy Retail Management 195

The Big Picture

MARCH 3, 2023

The chart shows the peak-to-trough declines of all the bear markets with the popular definition of a 20% decline, measured up until the start of the first 20% rally. As Batnick points out, all of these horrendous periods of market pain are already factored into long-term returns of equities. Have a look at the BAML chart above.

Marketing 336

Marketing Marketing Economics Portfolio 336

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 24, 2023

Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2023 Below are my ten questions for 2024 (I've been doing this online every year for almost 20 years!). economy will likely perform in 2024, and if there are surprises - like in 2020 with the pandemic - to adjust my thinking. How much will the economy grow in 2024? YoY in 2022.

Economics 226

Economics Economy Sales Commission 226

Abnormal Returns

JULY 6, 2023

(awealthofcommonsense.com) The housing market is in a very real way locked up. theconversation.com) Economy The quit rate continues to slow. calculatedriskblog.com) The labor market is threading the needle. nytimes.com) The war has taken a toll on Ukraine's scientists. bonddad.blogspot.com) Job openings are down year-over-year.

Economics 239

Economics Startup Financial Advising Media 239

The Big Picture

JANUARY 4, 2025

Wall Street Journal ) 200 Years of Market Concentration : Is this trend an anomaly or part of an ongoing pattern in the stock market? To answer this question, we have collected data on the concentration of the US stock market over the past 235 years, from 1790 until the present. And its maintained by hidden figures like her.

Government 246

Government Advertising Economy Engineering 246

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 14, 2025

arstechnica.com) Economy Derek Thompson talks Gen Z with Kyla Scanlon, author of "In This Economy?: How Money & Markets Really Work." podcasts.apple.com) Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway talk about the history of prediction markets with Ryan Isakow. (techcrunch.com) Pocket Casts is making its podcast player free.

Budgeting 147

Budgeting Economy Taxes Economics 147

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 19, 2025

From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, January 2829, 2025. Furthermore, some participants commented that with supply and demand in the labor market roughly in balance and in light of recent productivity gains, labor market conditions were unlikely to be a source of inflationary pressure in the near future.

Economy 147

Economy Economics Numbers Marketing 147

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 28, 2024

humbledollar.com) What happens when you stop focusing on the stock market. fasterplease.substack.com) Economy The U.S. economy is in its best shape since the 1990s. economy is the envy of the rest of the developed world. wapo.st) The economic schedule for the coming week. disciplinefunds.com) The U.S.

Marketing 277

Marketing Marketing Financial Advising Economy 277

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 26, 2023

Markets Nick Maggiulli, "What will cause the next market decline? ofdollarsanddata.com) It's not news that the stock market goes up most years. news.crunchbase.com) Global Is China's stock market finally cheap enough for another look? nytimes.com) Economy Case-Shiller showed a 4.8% I have no clue."

Marketing 264

Marketing Marketing Financial Advising Economy 264

Zoe Financial

JANUARY 28, 2025

Market Timing vs. Time in the Market Updated January 28th, 2025 Reading Time: 4 minutes Written by: The Zoe Team Though these terms may sound similar, market timing is not the same as time in the market. It all comes down to human psychology and the relationship between markets and volatility. Lets take a poll.

Marketing 98

Marketing Marketing Financial Advisor Investing 98

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 4, 2023

map.simonsarris.com) Economy The July NFP report showed a 187k jump in jobs and a 3.5% calculatedriskblog.com) There is continued deceleration in the jobs market. bonddad.blogspot.com) The American economy is normalizing. economy has reached a new, post-pandemic phase. unemployment rate. carsongroup.com) The U.S.

Economics 246

Economics Financial Advising Healthcare Economy 246

Trade Brains

OCTOBER 28, 2024

BRICS is a coalition of five major emerging economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. The collective efforts of BRICS highlight the importance of collaboration among emerging economies. This alliance has the potential to challenge established power structures, particularly in global economic governance.

Economics 111

Economics Economy Government Investing 111

Calculated Risk

MARCH 10, 2025

Uncertainty shapes economic cycles fueling booms, triggering busts, and driving debates about what comes next. Uncertainty abounds in the railroad industry too, where evolving demand, market conditions, and economic policies constantly create both challenges and opportunities. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission.

Economics 162

Economics Economy Marketing Marketing 162

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 24, 2022

medium.com) Big tech companies are sitting on their own bond market losses. wsj.com) China is dramatically reducing the amount of economic statistics it publishes. economist.com) Economy This high yield bond indicator is signalling economic trouble ahead. thediff.co) Global How the U.S.

Marketing 246

Marketing Marketing Financial Advising Valuation 246

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 30, 2024

From Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook ( Watch here on YouTube ). Excerpt: Our economy is strong overall and has made significant progress over the past two years toward achieving our dual-mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices. Labor market conditions are solid, having cooled from their previously overheated state.

Economics 162

Economics Economy Marketing Marketing 162

Clever Girl Finance

APRIL 22, 2025

Recession-proof businesses are more than just smart, they’re essential when economic uncertainty hits. Recessions can bring layoffs, reduced hours, and shrinking markets. But while the economy slows, certain businesses remain steady, and some even thrive. GDP is how overall economic activity is measured for a country.

Economy 69

Economy Food Healthcare Economics 69

The Big Picture

MAY 1, 2025

These days, turning on the TV to get the latest news about the markets and the economy can be enough to send anyone into panic mode. The second section of your book focuses on Bad Numbers, or in other words, misleading numbers that could drive the economy, the markets and ultimately, your investments.

Retirement 189

Retirement Investing Investments Numbers 189

Wealth Management

JANUARY 27, 2025

RIAs' belief in the future of the economy grew for the fourth straight month, even as the post-election bump in market sentiment faded slightly.

Economics 220

Economics Economy Marketing Marketing 220

Abnormal Returns

JUNE 23, 2024

Strategy Mean reversion happens in the stock market. scheplick.com) Business The degenerate economy is booming. msn.com) Heat is going to increasingly play a role in how the economy works. wapo.st) Economy More companies are now touting price cuts. axios.com) The economic schedule for the coming week.

Medicine 311

Medicine Financial Advising Economy Media 311

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 12, 2025

Markets A reminder that degenerate traders are not confined to the U.S. acadian-asset.com) Another example, why the stock market is not a level playing field. scopeofwork.net) Finance Europe needs a single pan-continental stock market. noahpinion.blog) Why would a foreign company want to re-enter the Russian market?

Media 162

Media Economy Economics Marketing 162