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This month's edition kicks off with the news that 'startup' custodian Altruist has completed a $169 million fundraising round as it continues to rebuild the RIA custodial tech stack layer-by-layer while positioning itself as the biggest RIA custodian built from scratch and solely for advisors – which, while making it the clear #3 custodian behind (..)
If the economy remains strong (as we expect), that would matter much more than just about anything else. Here’s What the October Payroll Report Really Tells Us About the Economy October payrolls were a big disappointment, with job growth clocking in at just 12,000. But those numbers are backward looking.
Good news can be bad news in the short run, but a solid economy usually becomes good news again once we get past the initial market reaction. If the underlying economy is sound, pullbacks like this can actually be a positive for the longer-term health of the market. Monthly numbers can be noisy and so a 3-month average is helpful.
Economic data last week showed the economy slowing more than expected, adding to worries about a potential recession. Monthly nonfarm payrolls came in weak, adding to the worries about the overall strength of the economy. Lower rates could provide a jump to the economy on both fronts.
April inflation data confirmed there is no need to panic about the first-quarter numbers. Despite the path of the economy, inflation, the election, geopolitics, or the Fed’s actions, what matters at the end of the day is what markets do. New highs scare many investors, but history suggests more new highs will follow.
Optimism over lower taxes, a stronger economy, animal spirits, and strong earnings all were likely reasons for the surge. The economy created 227,000 jobs in November, close to expectations, which somewhat made up for the low 36,000 number in October (revised up from 12,000). For reference, the 2019 average was 166,000.
It is important to remember that stocks lead the economy, both on the way up and the way down. To us, this is the market’s way of saying the economy will continue to see solid growth next year. Stocks tend to lead the economy, and several major indexes are near new highs, which is a good signal for the economy.
May job growth surprised to the upside with the economy adding a robust 272,000 jobs. How the consumer is tapped out, the economy is headed for a recession, only a few stocks are going up, and so on endlessly. We didn’t even see significant revisions to March and April payroll numbers, and the 3-month average now sits at 249,000.
The economy has strong momentum, with growth accelerating since the first half of the year. Let’s Call It Like It Is: The Economy Is Strong, and There’s No Recession on the Horizon A year ago, a Bloomberg Economics model projected a recession within the next 12 months with 100% probability. Through June 2023, the economy grew 2.4%
Further, critics of non-compete agreements argue that they restrict dynamism in the overall economy by making it harder for businesses to hire (as the pool of applicants will be smaller in industries where non-competes are prevalent ), and for employees subject to non-competes to start new companies.
The recently released Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey showed a record number of participants who intend to cut US exposure, as shown in the chart below. Powell’s prepared remarks started off by saying the economy was/is in good shape, including labor markets and the inflation picture.
Good Riddance, February The second half of February was rough, as worries over the economy, tariffs, and large cap tech weakness dominated the conversation. We continue to think the bull market is alive and well and the economy is on solid footing, but that doesnt mean we wont have scary headlines or worries. Heres the thing.
The September payroll report confirms the economy is strong. Aggregate income is rising above the pace of inflation, and that’s powering the economy. Wage growth is easing, which should alleviate concerns that the economy is overheating. Expectations for a stronger economy are driving interest rates higher.
While the GDP number for the first quarter disappointed, strength was evident beneath the surface. The weakest numbers were in areas that are volatile and tend to reverse, such as inventories and net exports. The core numbers were solid again and didn’t change our basic outlook for the rest of the year. in the first quarter.
The late week rebound was supported by better economic data, including some good jobs-related numbers. Markets Perked Up on Better Job Numbers The August 2 jobs report already had markets primed for a potentially volatile week after job gains came in much weaker than expected and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3%.
A “Goldilocks” December jobs report highlights sustained momentum for the economy as it continues its path to normalization. Goldilocks Job Numbers as Economy Powers Ahead The December payroll report was strong on the surface, with 216,000 jobs created last month and the unemployment rate firm at 3.7%. million, or 2.6
Q2 GDP Growth Confirms Economic Resilience The economy grew at an annualized pace of 2.8% It’s a very solid, but not spectacular, number, just in the top half of all quarters since 2010, but looking at it in the context of the rate environment shows just how resilient the economy has been. almost broke the economy in 2019.
Here are 10 key highlights regarding risk management in financial services during 2023: Increased focus on operational risk : Operational risk has become a major focus of attention for financial services firms, due to the increasing number of cyberattacks and other operational failures.
The Role of Financial Marketing Consultants in Today’s Economy Financial marketing consultants are experts in their field. Compliance and Regulatory Advertising Standards The financial services industry has many rules. They provide market analysis, offer digital solutions, and ensure compliance with all rules and laws.
The economy added 206,000 jobs in June, ahead of expectations of 190,000. Fortunately, the doers drive the economy; the thinkers only report on it. The economy created 206,000 jobs last month, above expectations for a 190,000 increase. These numbers can and will be revised, and so it helps to look at the 3-month average.
Although many were worried, the economy remained quite strong and odds were high the Fed was done hiking rates. The economy is normalizing, which could loosen tight financial conditions and boost cyclical activity. Monthly job growth numbers can be noisy, and so the three-month average is helpful to review.
This Bull Market Is Still Young As we’ve been saying for close to 18 months, we think we are in a new bull market and the economy will avoid a recession over the coming year. Stocks gained for the second week in a row, as strong earnings, a dovish Fed, and a “Goldilocks” job number sparked buying.
The numbers paint a stark picture, with approximately 340,000 fewer accountants working today compared to just five years ago (Bloomberg). Declining number of graduates Adding to the CPA shortage is a dramatic decline in the number of students pursuing accounting degrees.
The economy continues to appear in good shape. The numbers suggest the slight near-term lift in inflation is a bump, not a new surge higher. s consumer-driven economy. Ultimately, what matters for an economy that runs mostly on consumption is inflation-adjusted income growth. For perspective, it was running at 2.6%
As long-time readers know, Carson Investment Research has been on record since November of 2022 that the lows were indeed in and prices were going higher, and that the economy would surprise to the upside and avoid a recession. I don’t know how you can look at these numbers and still say inflation is a problem. Core CPI is up 3.3%
That is more than the economy needs to keep up with population growth. That’s encouraging for consumption and the economy. The Labor Market Is Also Normalizing At the beginning of the year, we labeled our 2023 outlook “The Edge of Normal” as we expected markets and the economy to normalize in 2023.
Bureau of Labor Statistics, employment numbers for Financial Managers are expected to rise by 17% over the next decade , faster than the average for all occupations. Employment numbers for Financial Managers are expected to rise by 17% over the next decade, faster than the average for all occupations. Chief Compliance Officer.
While economic growth may have peaked in the third quarter, we expect the economy to remain supportive. With the economy on firm footing and sentiment turning pessimistic, we remain optimistic a significant year-end rally is still possible. The Energizer Bunny Economy You just can’t put this economy down. Despite the U.S.
Let’s Not Get Too Excited Yet Yes, stocks hit new highs across the board last week on optimism about an economy that would likely avoid a recession and a Fed that was now cutting rates. Beyond headline inflation, higher energy prices can even feed into core inflation numbers that the Fed typically focuses on. Matching the 13.9%
Strong Job Numbers Are Good News for the Economy and Markets There’s been valid concern that employment conditions are deteriorating, ever so slowly. If you combine wage growth with employment growth and hours worked, we get a sense of aggregate income growth across all workers in the economy. in April 2023 to 4.3%
Strong economic growth and better data should be viewed positively, as it shows the economy isn’t falling into a recession. The economy ran above trend last year, despite high interest rates. Economy: This Time Was Different, and That’s a Big Deal The U.S. economy grew 5.8% And that is what is happening now.
ECONOMY The economy saw blockbuster productivity growth in the third quarter. ECONOMY: PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH COULD BE A GAME CHANGER Lost in all the consternation over a weak payroll report this month was robust productivity data, which was released earlier. But this was not because the productive capacity of the economy expanded.
Looking at the numbers, more good news could be in store for the bulls. As long-time followers of this commentary know, we’ve been quite bullish on both the stock market and the economy for well over a year now. But the odds favor more green numbers. The logical question is: How much is too much? 2024 is off to a strong start.
Housing makes up 40% of core inflation, and the August numbers showed the official data is catching up to private rental data, albeit slowly. We don’t think it will come to that, mostly because we believe core inflation will continue to ease even in the face of a relatively strong economy. That slowed to a 5.5-7%
These numbers are clearly over the Feds 2% target. As you saw from the numbers above, inflation really isnt a problem anymore. The NASDAQ 100 Index includes publicly-traded companies from most sectors in the global economy, the major exception being financial services. Headline CPI rose 0.3% and is up 2.7% from last year.
As we will discuss below in more detail, we still believe the US economy is just fine. Those numbers were the underpinning of a large upside surprise in July retail sales. The economy’s underlying fundamentals are sound but there are segments where tight Fed policy is having a bite. Headline retail sales came in at 1.0%
economy continues to look solid, with markets rallying Friday after a stronger-than-expected jobs report. gain, but not a bad number by any means. Of course, markets will ultimately respond to movement in the economy and corporate America, which we discuss below. economy, and the job market is leading the way.
We Aren’t Alone Anymore A year ago, we told anyone who would listen that the economy would likely avoid a recession and stocks were going to have a great year. Another data point from the recent GFS caught our attention: The number of managers looking for ‘no landing’ is rising. We see that all over NVIDIA’s earnings numbers.
If tech is removed from the equation, those numbers are estimated to drop approximately three points, putting stocks right in line with historical averages. One reason many claim the stock market is in a bubble is 2023 earnings were barely positive while stocks soared, implying it was all multiple expansion. to 2.1% (real GDP growth).
Also, the number of NYSE stocks on the rise surged, which is exactly what was needed for the next phase of this bull market to continue. That is particularly meaningful because households have more income to spend elsewhere — keeping consumption and the economy humming. in October. Over the last six months, core CPI has run at a 3.2%
While some cracks may be forming, the economy remains on firm footing. Our Leading Economic Indicators Still Point to a Strong Economy A couple of softer-than-expected economic report cards recently came in — first quarter GDP growth and the April payroll report — and suddenly, calls for an impending recession have resumed.
Nigl’s bracket finally went bust on game 50 (the third game on the second weekend) when three seed Purdue defeated number two Tennessee, 99-94, in overtime. And about 60 percent of national champions are one of the four number one seeds. A roulette wheel hitting the same number seven times in a row ( one in three billion ).
NSE also oversees compliance by its members and listed companies with relevant rules and regulations. Growth potential: With a solid growth history, NSE is well-positioned to capitalize on India’s expanding economy, which promises significant opportunities for further financial market expansion.
And companies can grow earnings as long as the global economy grows, which is something it has been doing much more often than not for several millennia. There have been short-term fluctuations when the economy has slowed, but the overall trend has been strong. economy can continue to grow, and the rest follows.
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