Mish Talk

DECEMBER 19, 2022

8Chart courtesy of StockCharts.Com, annotations by Mish. A long-term chart suggests the real driver for gold is not inflation, not the dollar, not conspiracies, not China, and not oil, but rather faith in central banks. Timeline Synopsis Nixon closed the gold redemption window on August 15, 1971. The price of gold was $35 an ounce. Faith in the dollar and central banks collapsed.

Banking 187

Banking Accounting Assets Marketing 187

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 18, 2022

Tesla TSLA weekly chart courtesy of StockCharts.Com. Tesla bounced off weekly support at the 220 level then quickly crashed strong support at the 180 level with nary a bounce. Next support is the 140 level, then 100, then 60, then 23. Tesla Monthly Support Levels. Tesla TSLA monthly chart courtesy of StockCharts.Com. At the monthly level, things look grim.

Sales 176

Sales Assets Marketing Marketing 176

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 17, 2022

Collapse In Prices Can You Take Advantage? Why Not Lower Retail Prices? Deflation is a B h Clever Lease Extension There you go. Some excellent comments from @guydealership and others. The lead chart suggests Carvana is headed for bankruptcy. Not to worry, I am sure the owners got out at the top with stock options and sales. This post originated at MishTalk.Com.

Retail 66

Retail Sales Economics 66

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 16, 2022

Chart courtesy of CoinMarketCap, annotations by Mish. A wave of selling is hitting Binance right now in the wake of crypto concerns in the fallout of FTX. To see it, let's take a look at the past week. Binance BNB Last Seven Days. Binance Says Accounting Firm Mazars Pauses Work for Crypto Clients The Wall Street Journal reports Binance Says Accounting Firm Mazars Pauses Work for Crypto Clients Cryptocurrency-trading giant Binance said the accounting firm it used to verify its reserves has paused

Accounting 199

Accounting Clients Numbers Economics 199

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 16, 2022

Early Benchmark Revisions of State Payroll Employment Please consider Early Benchmarks for All 50 States and the District of Columbia for the second quarter of 2022. Estimates by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia indicate that the employment changes from March through June 2022 were significantly different in 33 states and the District of Columbia compared with current state estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) Current Employment Statistics (CES).

Food 361

Food Sales Retail Economics 361

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 15, 2022

Retail sales from commerce department, chart by Mish. Advance Retail Sales Today, the Commerce Department released Advance Retail Sales Data for November. Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $689.4 billion, down 0.6 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, but up 6.5 percent (±0.7 percent) above November 2021.

Food 245

Food Retail Sales Economy 245

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 15, 2022

Industrial Production data from the Fed, chart and percentages by Mish. Please consider the Fed's Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Report for November. Industrial production declined 0.2 percent in November. Decreases of 0.6 percent for manufacturing and 0.7 percent for mining were partly offset by a rebound of 3.6 percent for utilities following three months of declines.

Food 207

Food Manufacturing Sales Retail 207

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 14, 2022

Dot Plot Interest Rate projections from FOMC, highlights and annotations by Mish. Please consider the FOMC Press Release from December 14. Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher food and energy prices, and broader price pressures.

Food 205

Food Economics Accounting Planning 205

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 14, 2022

Please note that a bipartisan bill to crack down on crypto money laundering is in the works. The Legislation Would Direct the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) within the Treasury Department to designate digital asset wallet providers, miners, validators and others as money service businesses. Extend responsibilities in the Bank Secrecy Act to the crypto industry, including Know-Your-Customer (KYC) requirements.

Banking 282

Banking Assets Accounting Economics 282

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 14, 2022

Month-over-month CPI food prices from the BLS, chart by Mish. Month-Over-Month Details For November Meat, Fish, Poultry, Eggs: -0.2%, up 9 of 11 months in 2022 Cereals and Bakery:+1.1%, up 11 of 11 months in 2022 Dairy: +0.7 percent: up 11 of 11 months in 2022 Fruits and Vegetables: up 1.4%, up 9 of 11 months in 2022 Nonalcoholic Beverages: -0.3%, up 10 of 11 months in 2022 Other Food at Home: -0.1%, up 10 of 11 months in 2022 Three Major Food Categories.

Food 244

Food Economics 244

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 13, 2022

SBF Arrested Yesterday Indictment Unsealed Charges Against SBF Wire fraud Commodities and securities fraud Money laundering Campaign finance violations SEC Involved Formal Request for Extradition FTX is Unique No Record Keeping Whatsoever Please think about that for a second. Blockchain's big promise was record keeping. FTX kept no records, of anything.

Electronics 189

Electronics Distribution Government Assets 189

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 13, 2022

CPI data from the BLS, chart by Mish. The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.1 percent in November on a seasonally adjusted basis. Key Points The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.1 percent in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.4 percent in October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

Food 195

Food Medical Communication Education 195

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 12, 2022

Cathie Wood's ARK ETF courtesy of StockCharts.Com, annotations by Mish. Losing Faith The Wall Street Journal comments Investors Are Losing Faith in Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation Investors heeding a “buy the dip” rallying cry poured money into the fund in each of the first five months of the year—a net $1.89 billion—as markets tumbled. Since then, their enthusiasm has waned.

Valuation 157

Valuation Communication Management Marketing 157

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 12, 2022

Question of the Day I am a merchant. At long last I decide to accept Bitcoin for whatever I am selling. Does that matter to the price of Bitcoin? When and How? Two Cases As the merchant, I hold Bitcoin received for my goods or services. As the merchant, I trade Bitcoin for dollars, yen, Euros, or something else. Case number one is price neutral to Bitcoin.

Numbers 130

Numbers Math Insurance Government 130

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 11, 2022

"CZ" Image likeness courtesy of Coin Telegraph article below. Binance's Proof of Reserves Statement When we say Proof of Reserves, we are specifically referring to those assets that we hold in custody for users. This means that we are showing evidence and proof that Binance has funds that cover all of our users assets 1:1, as well as some reserves. When a user deposits one Bitcoin, Binance's reserves increase by at least one Bitcoin to ensure client funds are fully backed.

Assets 362

Assets Accounting Clients Economics 362

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 10, 2022

Target 2 balances from the ECB, numbers and caption by Mish. TARGET2 is the real-time gross settlement (RTGS) system owned and operated by the Eurosystem. The Target2 Lead Chart is courtesy of the ECB. It shows Target 2 creditor and debtor nations. Tatget2 is one of the fundamental flaws of the Eurozone. Primary Creditors and Debtors Target2 surpluses to the tune of €1.23 trillion continue to mount in Germany.

Economics 218

Economics Banking Government Numbers 218

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 9, 2022

Bond yields from the New York Fed, chart by Mish. Chart Notes and Synopsis On the horizontal axis, F stands for Effective Fed Funds Rate (EFFR). The 3 and 6 represent months. I extrapolated rates between years equally. A few days ago the 10-year and 30-year bonds inverted and remain inverted. The EFFR is 3.83 percent. It is inverted with every bond of 5-years duration and longer.

Banking 224

Banking Economics 224

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 9, 2022

Producer Price Index from BLS, chart by Mish. Last month I noted the PPI cools with first decline in services in two years. That didn't last long. Please consider the BLS Producer Price Index report for November 2022. PPI Key Month-Over-Month Details The Producer Price Index for final demand advanced 0.3 percent in November, seasonally adjusted. Final demand prices also rose 0.3 percent in both October and September.

Food 187

Food Transportation Retail Advertising 187

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 8, 2022

Reserve balances, reverse repos, and interest rate paid to banks from St. Louis Fed, chart by Mish. Chart Notes Data reflects end of month numbers. The latest reserve balance is from the New York Fed. The rest of the numbers are via a St. Louis Fed download. Note the stairstep pattern on interest paid on reserves. The interest rate rises every time the Fed hike rates.

Banking 300

Banking Numbers Economics 300

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 8, 2022

National Rent Report Please consider the latest National Rent Report by Apartment List. Our national index fell by 1 percent over the course of November, marking the third straight month-over-month decline, and the largest single month dip in the history of our index, going back to 2017. The timing of the recent cooldown in the rental market is consistent with the typical seasonal trend, but its magnitude has been notably sharper than what we’ve seen in the past, suggesting that the recent swing

Numbers 223

Numbers Marketing Marketing Economics 223

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 7, 2022

Thanks to president Biden, The Pentagon Marches Off to Climate War. A little-noticed rule-making proposed by the Department of Defense, NASA and the General Services Administration last month would require federal contractors to disclose and reduce their CO2 emissions as well as climate financial risks. The rule would cover 5,766 contractors that have received at least $7.5 million from the feds in the prior year.

Nonprofit 287

Nonprofit Pharmaceutical Budgeting Manufacturing 287

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 7, 2022

Industrial production data from the Fed, chart by Mish. Other than 2000 and 2020 there is not much lead time between the time industrial production peaks and recession starts. Recession Lead Time After Industrial Production Peak. Industrial production data from the Fed, calculation and chart Mish. In 5 of the last recessions, industrial production was primarily a coincident indicator of recessions.

Manufacturing 130

Manufacturing Numbers Economics 130

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 5, 2022

ISM data and discussion by permission from ISM. Please consider the November 2022 Services ISM ® Report On Business ® Economic activity in the services sector grew in November for the 30th month in a row — with the Services PMI ® registering 56.5 percent. “The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 53.8 percent, 2.4 percentage points lower than the 56.2 percent reported in October.

Economy 190

Economy Manufacturing Economics Healthcare 190

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 5, 2022

Inflation stats from ECB, comments by Mish. The lead chart is from the ECB Measuring inflation – the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) Key Chart Points The lead chart shows October rates of inflation for all the Eurozone countries. The ECB base interest rate is 1.50 percent and the ECB has penciled in a rise to 2.0 percent on December 15. The overall euro area inflation rate rose to 10.6 percent in October from 9.9 percent in September.

Banking 185

Banking Economics 185

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 4, 2022

FTX squabble image from WSJ Tweet Below. Global Aspirations of Crypto Meet the Hard Reality of Law The predicted legal mess over FTX has exploded in Global Clashes Over FTX Bankruptcy In Cyprus, the country’s securities regulator is complaining that Mr. Ray’s decision to place FTX in bankruptcy has stymied investigations and is preventing European customers from getting their money back.

Assets 176

Assets Banking Government Commission 176

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 4, 2022

Inflation data from St. Louis Fed amended with October data from other sources, chart by Mish. Yesterday, I commented on Inflation Around the World: How Does the US Compare to Canada and the EU? but have new sources for October data. Year-Over-Year EU Inflation Soars in October EU inflation is getting out of hand. For example, yesterday I said inflation in France peaked at 6.08 percent and fell to 5.55 percent ion September.

Economy 301

Economy Economics 301

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 3, 2022

Inflation data from St. Louis Fed, chart by Mish. Credit for the chart idea itself goes to the St. Louis Fed. I downloaded the data and created my own charts to better hone in on the data. Year-Over-Year Inflation Seven Countries Detail. Inflation data from St. Louis Fed, chart by Mish. The EU lags badly when it comes to reporting most data releases.

Economics 212

Economics 212

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 2, 2022

Payroll and employment data from the BLS, chart by Mish. Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its Monthly Payroll Report. Initial Thoughts The discrepancy between jobs and employment continues for the eighth month. Lost in the unemployment and jobs headline noise are huge divergences between jobs and employment dating back to March. Payrolls vs Employment Since March 2022 Nonfarm Payrolls: +2,692,000 Employment Level: +12,000 Full Time Employment: -398,000 Employment fell by 138,000 in

Manufacturing 327

Manufacturing Retirement Numbers Economics 327

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 2, 2022

GDPNow data from Atlanta Fed, chart by Mish. Chart Notes The blue line is the base forecast. It is about all the public sees or hears about when the BEA releases its GDP report but it is not what matters most. The red line is Real Final Sales (RFS). That is the bottom line estimate for the economy and what does matter most. The yellow line is RFS to domestic buyers, the rest is exports.

Sales 130

Sales Numbers Economics Media 130

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 1, 2022

ISM chart and details below by permission of the Institute for Supply Management. Please consider the November 2022 Manufacturing ISM ® Report On Business ® “Manufacturing contracted in November after expanding for 29 straight months. Panelists’ companies continue to judiciously manage hiring, other than October 2022, the month-over-month supplier delivery performance was the best since February 2012, when it registered 47 percent and material lead times declined approximately 9 percent from the

Manufacturing 222

Manufacturing Business Planning Management Economy 222

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 1, 2022

Real, inflation-adjusted inventory data from the BEA via St. Louis Fed, chart by Mish. The chart shows "real" inflation-adjusted inventories. The index year is 2012. In four of the last six recession, inventories continued to build well into recession. In the other two, inventories peaked just prior to or at the start of recession. Biggest Ramp in Wholesale Inventory History.

Manufacturing 208

Manufacturing Retail Economy Economics 208

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 1, 2022

Case-Shiller home price data via St. Louis Fed, chart by Mish. Home Price Synopsis Home prices have peaked this cycle but the decline is certainly tiny compared to the run up. Case-Shiller data lags. The latest data is from September and that represents sales primarily made in July and August so the declines shown are undoubtedly understated. Prices are falling now across the board.

Sales 321

Sales Marketing Marketing Economics 321

Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 30, 2022

Image courtesy of StockCharts.Com. The Federal Reserve posts a Transcript of Powell's Speech on Inflation and the Labor Market. Powell put a spotlight on core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation, noting that it is stubbornly high despite the Fed's rate hikes. Key Powell Comments (Emphasis Mine) Twelve-month core PCE inflation stands at 5.0 percent in our October estimate, approximately where it stood last December when policy tightening was in its early stages.

Marketing 249

Marketing Marketing Retirement Risk Management 249

Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 30, 2022

Blockchain Scrapheap The Tech Monitor reports IBM and Maersk Scrap Blockchain Trade Platform TradeLens IBM and logistics company Maersk have called time on TradeLens, the blockchain-backed supply chain platform that came online for the first time in 2018, citing a “lack of global industry collaboration” for its demise. It is due to cease operations early next year, and the second IBM-backed blockchain trade platform to get the chop this year.

License 219

License Transportation Distribution Banking 219

Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 30, 2022

Really Worried about IRA Eurointelligence writes Industry is Really Worried about IRA. Whether you talk to European industrialists in Brussels or German industrialists in Berlin, you get the same message these days. They are really worried about the US inflation reduction act. At the BDI conference in Berlin, it was the dominant subject. FAZ quotes the president of the German federation of industry as saying that more than a fifth of German medium-sized companies they had polled were considering

Government 217

Government Planning Investing Investments 217

Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 29, 2022

Monthly average Fed Funds Rate via St. Louis Fed. Chart Notes I use monthly averages because the Fed now targets a range. Also the Fed Funds Target Rate is discontinued and only dates to 1982. This is the steepest, most aggressive hiking cycle ever. You can see the impact especially in mortgage rates and thus housing. 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates 1975-Present. 30-year fixed mortgage rates courtesy of Mortgage News Daily. 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates - One Year. 30-year fixed mortgage rates court

Sales 285

Sales Economics Consulting Economy 285

Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 28, 2022

Crypto Firms in Bankruptcy Proceedings End of an Era The Balance Sheet Assets $256 million. Liabilities $1 to $10 billion. Fun Fact The SEC has a $30 million unsecured claim on BlockFi. Inverse Cramer Strategy Yet Again The Wall Street Journal reports BlockFi Files for Bankruptcy as Latest Crypto Casualty BlockFi, based in Jersey City, N.J., is only beginning to answer how its hundreds of thousands of customers will fare in an insolvency.

Assets 214

Assets Management Economics 214