Bitcoin Hits a New 52-Week Low, Where to From Here?

I have been making notes, some of them incorrectly. Apologies offered. 

I need to make a note.

Note to Self: Bitcoin has bottomed for the 33rd time this year. https://t.co/QwhcQJLX9P

— Mike “Mish” Shedlock (@MishGEA) November 17, 2022

Generational Bottoms

Bottomed at:
50K
45K
33K
25K – can’t go down from here!
18K – Generational Bottom!

Currently: 16673

— SoNotFinancialAdvice (Bear/Bull) (@MuchAdvised) November 17, 2022

Bitcoin is Life

Note to self: Bitcoin is life

And it’s life that can never die. https://t.co/Y7PDBy7pOx

— Mike “Mish” Shedlock (@MishGEA) September 3, 2022

Hoot of the Day (From May 2022)

Hmm 6 months is up. On May 8, Bitcoin was $34,000. It’s now under $16,000. 

That’s OK because 6 months doesn’t matter and $1BTC is still $1BTC.

Bitcoin Log Chart

Where to From Here?

I do not know, nor does anyone else, especially the plethora of bottom callers in the past few months. 

However, we can discuss technical support levels where Bitcoin is likely to bounce.

Support Levels and Strength

• 10,347 Weak
• $5,411 Modest
• $3,668 Strong
• $1,914 Modest
• $934 Modest 

My guess is that the $10,000 level will not hold. If not, the first support level of modest strength is $5,411.

But if we get that far and Saylor has not been figuratively carted out in a basket yet, I doubt that level hold.

What Will Trigger a Bottom?

What Will Trigger a Bitcoin Bottom?

— Mike “Mish” Shedlock (@MishGEA) November 14, 2022

Nine Answers 

• Yabba Dabba Doo: Apathy is the correct answer. Once no one cares or talks about it, then the bottom is in. Then the wait for bitcoin halving truly begins.
• Dmitry McKay: Fed. It’s always been Fed.
• Mario kanario: COVID19 cycle buyers capitulating.
• Lord Wrymouth: Numbers like $10,879 as bears pile in for four digits and people panic sell.
• Patrick Johnson: Saylor and/or Tether blowing up
• Rudy Russo: Tether
• G: A legitimate use case emerging, but sailor blowing up will be funny
• PlantainYum: $0.00
• Stephan Orme: Does anyone still think bitcoin will survive?

Cult Hero Michael Saylor

Cult Hero Worship

It feels the same because it is the same.

Look at @saylor betting the company on it with leverage.

For what? Another million dollar house, boat, island?

Then he parades around like a laser-eyed idiot, expecting and getting hero-cult worship from those who got in early.

— Mike “Mish” Shedlock (@MishGEA) June 18, 2022

The Crypto Crash and Why It’s Impossible For “You!” to Cash Out

For a discussion of Michael Saylor, margin calls, and some amusing comments on why Bitcoin cannot possibly go lower than $20,000 …. please see my June 18, 2022 post The Crypto Crash and Why It’s Impossible For “You!” to Cash Out

Intermingled Accounts and Betting Books

3AC, Celsius, Finblox, GBTC, UST, LUNC, BlockFi, Deribit (a derivitaves exchange), and 8 Blocks Capital are all involved in this mess.

Let’s take one statement and sum it all up: “I hope you pay us back asap.”

A telling note on the likelihood of that comes from Finblox which is offering an amazing “90% interest” on asset pledges. That’s an indication of something headed to zero sooner than than later.

I am also amused by BlockFi’s statement “We fully accelerated the loan and fully liquidated or hedged all the associated collateral.”

I highlighted the word “or hedged“.

Question: How good are those hedges? What bankrupt firm will pay them? 

Additional Amusing Comments

• “Insane to Sell At These Levels” 
• “Can’t Go Below $20,000” 
• “Worst Case on Ethereum is $1,000” 
• “Bitcoin is Money”
• “It will Go Up Forever”
• “Money Always Goes Up”

And here we are, six months and hundreds of bottom calls later in the same silly discussions about worst case scenarios.

This post originated at MishTalk.Com.

Thanks for Tuning In!

Please Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.

Subscribers get an email alert of each post as they happen. Read the ones you like and you can unsubscribe at any time.

If you have subscribed and do not get email alerts, please check your spam folder.

Mish