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US LEI Deteriorates Right now, our proprietary US Leading Economic Index (LEI) is telling us that economic momentum is slowing and the economy is growing below trend. This was in sharp contrast to all the recession calls you saw in 2022 and 2023, including signals from other popular leading economic indicators.
Worries over the fallout from the Middle East conflict has traders on edge, while US economic data has been slowing some, and the Federal Reserve (“Fed”) is continuing to hold rates firm (which we discuss in more detail below). Even looking beyond 2025, the Fed is now projecting higher inflation in both 2026 and 2027.
Skip to main content remove menu search Search search remove Home What we do right-arrow arrow-sm-down left-arrow Back What we do Customizable technology and investment solutions that simplify complexity and empower the financialservices industry to move forward with confidence. Key differences.
It upped its view of economic growth and said things looked pretty good on the economic front. Neither did the Fed push the lost two rate cuts out to 2026. They estimated two rate cuts in 2026 in their September dot plot and stuck to that in their latest update. 2026: Up from 2.0% The S&P 500 is only 3.6%
If you look just at the end point, it looks like a perfectly ordinary year for markets in an economic expansion so far, but we know it’s been anything but. Smoot Hawley may have had the right intention—protect American businesses during a period of economic decline. The next six months aren’t as strong but still see gains on average.
Spoiler alert, 2026 and 2027 will have scary headlines and big market down days as well. The NASDAQ 100 Index includes publicly-traded companies from most sectors in the global economy, the major exception being financialservices. Worries happen every year 2025 wasnt going to be any different.
Skip to main content remove menu search Search search remove Home What we do right-arrow arrow-sm-down left-arrow Back What we do Customizable technology and investment solutions that simplify complexity and empower the financialservices industry to move forward with confidence. for both 2025 and 2026, to 2.0%
This was not unexpected, but all eyes were on the Feds dot plot (expected path of interest rates) and the rest of its Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). Even as Fed members increase the 2025 core PCE projection to 2.8%, they left the projection for 2026 at 2.2% The last update was in December and was viewed hawkish.
With a strong performance in recent years and a focus on sustainability, RIL is well-positioned to enhance its role in India’s dynamic economic landscape. This article examines Reliance Industries Limited’s (RIL) growth strategies from its recent AGM, covering plans for retail, digital services, and energy. It plans 1.5
CAGR over fiscal 2022 to 2026 after a minor decline of 1.2% in fiscal 2021 on account of the economic downturn induced by the COVID-19 outbreak. CRISIL Research expects the energy required to grow at 3.0-4.0% This gives it a premium of Rs 9 per share over the cap price of Rs 65. Promoters: Inox Wind Limited.
Precious metals like gold and silver have been sought after for centuries as a store of value and a hedge against economic uncertainties. trillion by 2021, it is expected to rise to $23 trillion by 2026. Market Conditions and Economic Outlook Consider market conditions and economic outlook when contemplating alternative investments.
Precious metals like gold and silver have been sought after for centuries as a store of value and a hedge against economic uncertainties. trillion by 2021, it is expected to rise to $23 trillion by 2026. Market Conditions and Economic Outlook Consider market conditions and economic outlook when contemplating alternative investments.
The tariff policy of the Trump administration should be viewed as an economic and market risk, with some potential negative impact on inflation, interest rates, the dollar (stronger), and the path of rate cuts. This is historically what happened as economic expansions wore on. The primary deficit rose to about 6.5% of GDP in 2015.
Higher Taxes and Tariffs This week we thought we would take a look at the key economic and market risk associated with each party’s platform. (We The prospect of higher taxes across the board in 2026, and lower corresponding household spending, should help clarify the sense of purpose of members of Congress.
Unless these tax cuts are pro-actively renewed, Americans will see their taxes go up starting in 2026. Keep in mind that 2026 is a mid-term election year, and that’s going to crystallize Congress’s focus on getting something done. At the same time, renewing them will increase the deficit by $4.6
I loved being able to take classes in economics, in politics, in theory, in philosophy. So this intersection of policy and politics, you know, international theory and you know, economics. Did you find something similar when you’re studying political science and economics to, how did that shape your investing philosophy?
The market is still pricing in at least three cuts in 2025 and another two in the first half of 2026. In other words, markets are expecting policy to stay tight in the near term, but an economic slowdown later in the year (and into 2026) may push the Fed to cut more rapidly. points over eight meetings.
But the uncertainty represented here is more focused on the ongoing impact of the ability to do business rather than the broad sense of uncertainty that has already led to economic disruption. Slow Burn From a market perspective, its hard to gauge the economic impact (and eventual market impact) of DOGE. medical research).
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