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Housing April 21st Weekly Update: Inventory up 2.4% Week-over-week, Up 33.4% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

APRIL 21, 2025

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Usually, inventory is up about 6% or 7% from the seasonal low by this week in the year. So, 2025 is seeing a larger than normal pickup in inventory. Click on graph for larger image. The red line is for 2025. The black line is for 2019.

Housing Jan 20th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 1.2% Week-over-week, Up 24.8% Year-over-year

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JANUARY 20, 2025

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. If the previous week was the seasonal bottom, that would be very early in the year, but that has happened before. Click on graph for larger image. The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 24.8%

A Spectacularly Underappreciated 15 Years

The Big Picture

APRIL 28, 2025

2015 gain of only 1.4% -2018 drop of 4.4%, including a Q4 drop of nearly 20%. -Q1 Over the entirety of the post-GFC era, we have been averaging a third more than the typical annual returns since 1925, and nearly double the average 15-year stretch. Q1 2020 down 34% in the pandemic. 2022 down 18% for the year.4

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Housing April 14th Weekly Update: Inventory up 1.6% Week-over-week, Up 33.4% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

APRIL 14, 2025

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Usually, inventory is up about 5% or 6% from the seasonal low by this week in the year. So, 2025 is seeing a larger than normal pickup in inventory. Click on graph for larger image. The red line is for 2025. The black line is for 2019.

Housing Feb 24th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 0.3% Week-over-week, Up 28.7% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 24, 2025

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Inventory always declines seasonally in the Winter and usually bottoms in January or February. Inventory is now up 2.5% from the bottom six weeks ago in January. Click on graph for larger image. The red line is for 2025. The black line is for 2019.

Housing April 7th Weekly Update: Inventory up 2.3% Week-over-week, Up 34.7% Year-over-year

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APRIL 7, 2025

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Usually, inventory is up about 4% or 5% from the seasonal low by this week in the year. So, 2025 is seeing a larger than normal pickup in inventory. Click on graph for larger image. The red line is for 2025. The black line is for 2019.

Housing April 28th Weekly Update: Inventory up 1.3% Week-over-week, Up 31.0% Year-over-year

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APRIL 28, 2025

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Usually, inventory is up about 9% from the seasonal low by this week in the year. So, 2025 is seeing a larger than normal pickup in inventory. Click on graph for larger image. The red line is for 2025. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 31.0%

Housing March 17th Weekly Update: Inventory up 2.1% Week-over-week, Up 29.3% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

MARCH 17, 2025

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Inventory is now up 5.0% from the seasonal bottom nine weeks ago in January and us starting to increase seasonally. Click on graph for larger image. The red line is for 2025. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 29.3%

Housing March 10th Weekly Update: Inventory up 0.5% Week-over-week, Up 28.3% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

MARCH 10, 2025

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Inventory is now up 2.9% from the seasonal bottom eight weeks ago in January and should start increasing significantly in the Spring. Click on graph for larger image. The red line is for 2025. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 28.3%

“Nobody Knows Anything,” Wall Street Strategist Edition

The Big Picture

JANUARY 2, 2025

Source : S&P 500s 2024 Rally Shocked Forecasters Expecting It to Fizzle By Alexandra Semenova and Sagarika Jaisinghani Bloomberg, December 29, 2024 See also : My Year-End Stock Market Forecast (December 10, 2024) All those 2025 mortgage rates forecasts are now wrong By Mike Simonsen Housing Wire, December 19, 2024 Previously : Coming March 18: (..)

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Housing March 3rd Weekly Update: Inventory down 0.1% Week-over-week, Up 28.3% Year-over-year

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MARCH 3, 2025

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Inventory is now up 2.4% from the seasonal bottom seven weeks ago in January and should start increasing seasonally in March. Click on graph for larger image. The red line is for 2025. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 28.3%

Housing Feb 3rd Weekly Update: Inventory Down 0.3% Week-over-week, Up 27.7% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 3, 2025

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. If three weeks ago was the seasonal bottom, that would be very early in the year, but that has happened before. Click on graph for larger image. The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 27.7%

Housing January 9th Weekly Update: Inventory Decreased 4% Week-over-week

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 9, 2023

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. As of January 6th, inventory was at 471 thousand (7-day average), compared to 491 thousand the prior week. Inventory has declined sharply seasonally in the winter. The red Dot is for the first week of 2023. The black line is for 2019.

Envestnet Explores Sale of Data Aggregator Yodlee

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DECEMBER 14, 2023

Envestnet paid about $590 million for Yodlee in 2015.

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Housing August 19th Weekly Update: Inventory up 0.8% Week-over-week, Up 40.4% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 19, 2024

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. This is the highest level of inventory since June 2020 ; however, inventory is still well below pre-pandemic levels. The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 40.4%

Housing Oct 21st Weekly Update: Inventory Up 1.0% Week-over-week, Up 33.4% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 21, 2024

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.0% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 49.7% from the February seasonal bottom. Click on graph for larger image. The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 33.4%

Housing April 17th Weekly Update: Inventory Decreased 1.3% Week-over-week

Calculated Risk

APRIL 17, 2023

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. As of April 14th, inventory was at 405 thousand (7-day average), compared to 411 thousand the prior week. Year-to-date, inventory is down 17.4%. The red line is for 2023. The black line is for 2019.

Fed January SLOOS Survey: Banks reported Weaker Demand for Residential Real Estate

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 3, 2025

The right graph is from 2015 to Q4 2024. This graph on Residential Real Estate demand is from the Senior Loan Officer Survey Charts. This graph is for demand and shows that demand has been weak since late 2021. The left graph is from 1990 to 2014.

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Housing June 10th Weekly Update: Inventory up 1.1% Week-over-week, Up 37.8% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

JUNE 10, 2024

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. As of June 7th, inventory was at 612 thousand (7-day average), compared to 605 thousand the prior week. Inventory is still far below pre-pandemic levels. The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 37.8%

Interest Payments Are An Increasingly Large Part Of The US Budget Deficit

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 6, 2023

If you were in Congress from 2015-2021, you are the reason why HALF of the projected federal debt will soon be interest payments. Source: Chartr We talked about this 2 weeks ago , but the nation missed a fantastic opportunity to refinance all of the outstanding US debt at much lower levels.

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Housing August 5th Weekly Update: Inventory up 1.0% Week-over-week, Up 39.9% Year-over-year

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AUGUST 5, 2024

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. This is the highest level of inventory since June 2020 ; however, inventory is still far below pre-pandemic levels. The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 39.9%

Housing June 12th Weekly Update: Inventory Increased 1.5% Week-over-week

Calculated Risk

JUNE 12, 2023

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Year-to-date, inventory is down 9.7%. And inventory is up 9.3% from the seasonal bottom eight weeks ago. The red line is for 2023. The black line is for 2019.

Housing May 15th Weekly Update: Inventory Increased 0.2% Week-over-week

Calculated Risk

MAY 15, 2023

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Year-to-date, inventory is down 14.3%. And inventory is up 3.7% from the seasonal bottom four weeks ago. The red line is for 2023. The black line is for 2019.

Housing May 13th Weekly Update: Inventory up 1.6% Week-over-week, Up 35.0% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

MAY 13, 2024

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. As of May 10th, inventory was at 568 thousand (7-day average), compared to 560 thousand the prior week. Inventory is still far below pre-pandemic levels. The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 35.0%

Housing Feb 10th Weekly Update: Inventory Down 0.4% Week-over-week, Up 27.8% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 10, 2025

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Inventory is now up 1.3% from the bottom four weeks ago. Inventory has been little changed over the last 4 weeks. Click on graph for larger image. The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 27.8%

Housing May 20th Weekly Update: Inventory up 1.7% Week-over-week, Up 36.0% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

MAY 20, 2024

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. As of May 17th, inventory was at 578 thousand (7-day average), compared to 568 thousand the prior week. Inventory is still far below pre-pandemic levels. The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 36.0%

Housing May 1st Weekly Update: Inventory Increased 2.0% Week-over-week

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MAY 1, 2023

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Year-to-date, inventory is down 14.0%. And inventory is up 4.1% from the bottom two weeks ago. The red line is for 2023. The black line is for 2019.

Housing April 10th Weekly Update: Inventory Increased 0.2% Week-over-week

Calculated Risk

APRIL 10, 2023

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. As of April 7th, inventory was at 411 thousand (7-day average), compared to 410 thousand the prior week. Year-to-date, inventory is down 16.3%. The red line is for 2023. The black line is for 2019.

Housing Sept 30th Weekly Update: Inventory up 0.8% Week-over-week, Up 36.7% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 30, 2024

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. As of September 27th, inventory was at 731 thousand (7-day average), compared to 725 thousand the prior week. This is the highest level of inventory since May 2020. The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 36.7%

Housing January 2nd Weekly Update: Inventory Decreased 3.4% Week-over-week

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 2, 2023

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. As of December 30th, inventory was at 491 thousand (7-day average), compared to 508 thousand the prior week. Inventory has declined sharply over the holidays. The red line is for 2022. The black line is for 2019.

Housing July 3rd Weekly Update: Inventory Increased 1.3% Week-over-week; Down Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

JULY 3, 2023

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Year-to-date, inventory is down 5.1%. And inventory is up 14.9% from the seasonal bottom eleven weeks ago. The red line is for 2023. The black line is for 2019.

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SEPTEMBER 21, 2023

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Housing Oct 14th Weekly Update: Inventory Down 0.3% Week-over-week, Up 34.0% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 14, 2024

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.3% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 48.3% from the February seasonal bottom. Click on graph for larger image. The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 34.0%

Morgan Stanley Pays $35M SEC Fine Over Data Security

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SEPTEMBER 20, 2022

About 15 million clients’ details were compromised over a five-year period starting 2015.

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Housing Nov 25th Weekly Update: Inventory down 0.4% Week-over-week, Up 27.1% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 25, 2024

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Inventory is now 2.8% below the peak for the year (5 weeks ago). Inventory will now decline seasonally until early next year. Click on graph for larger image. The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 27.1%

Housing January 16th Weekly Update: Inventory Increased 0.3% Week-over-week

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 16, 2023

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. As of January 13th, inventory was at 473 thousand (7-day average), compared to 471 thousand the prior week. The red line is for 2023. The black line is for 2019.

Housing March 6th Weekly Update: Inventory Decreased 2.6% Week-over-week

Calculated Risk

MARCH 6, 2023

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. As of March 3rd, inventory was at 419 thousand (7-day average), compared to 430 thousand the prior week. The red line is for 2023. The black line is for 2019.

Housing June 24th Weekly Update: Inventory up 2.2% Week-over-week, Up 37.7% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

JUNE 24, 2024

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. As of June 21st, inventory was at 634 thousand (7-day average), compared to 621 thousand the prior week. Inventory is still far below pre-pandemic levels. The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 37.7%

Housing Oct 7th Weekly Update: Inventory up 0.4% Week-over-week, Up 36.7% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 7, 2024

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.4% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 48.6% from the February seasonal bottom. Click on graph for larger image. The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 36.7%

Housing January 30th Weekly Update: Inventory Decreased 1.4% Week-over-week

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 30, 2023

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. As of January 27th, inventory was at 466 thousand (7-day average), compared to 472 thousand the prior week. The red line is for 2023. The black line is for 2019.

Housing January 23rd Weekly Update: Inventory Decreased Slightly Week-over-week

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 23, 2023

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. As of January 20th, inventory was at 472 thousand (7-day average), compared to 473 thousand the prior week. The red line is for 2023. The black line is for 2019.

Housing May 6th Weekly Update: Inventory up 0.6% Week-over-week, Up 33.1% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

MAY 6, 2024

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. As of May 3rd, inventory was at 560 thousand (7-day average), compared to 556 thousand the prior week. Inventory is still far below pre-pandemic levels. The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 33.1%

Housing April 3rd Weekly Update: Inventory Decreased 0.8% Week-over-week

Calculated Risk

APRIL 3, 2023

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. As of March 31st, inventory was at 410 thousand (7-day average), compared to 413 thousand the prior week. Year-to-date, inventory is down 16.5%, and at the lowest point so far this year. The red line is for 2023. The black line is for 2019.

Housing June 5th Weekly Update: Inventory Increased 0.7% Week-over-week

Calculated Risk

JUNE 5, 2023

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Year-to-date, inventory is down 11.1%. And inventory is up 7.6% from the seasonal bottom seven weeks ago. The red line is for 2023. The black line is for 2019.

Housing April 21st Weekly Update: Inventory up 2.4% Week-over-week, Up 33.4% Year-over-year

Housing Jan 20th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 1.2% Week-over-week, Up 24.8% Year-over-year

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A Spectacularly Underappreciated 15 Years

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Housing April 14th Weekly Update: Inventory up 1.6% Week-over-week, Up 33.4% Year-over-year

Housing Feb 24th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 0.3% Week-over-week, Up 28.7% Year-over-year

Housing April 7th Weekly Update: Inventory up 2.3% Week-over-week, Up 34.7% Year-over-year

Housing April 28th Weekly Update: Inventory up 1.3% Week-over-week, Up 31.0% Year-over-year

Housing March 17th Weekly Update: Inventory up 2.1% Week-over-week, Up 29.3% Year-over-year

Housing March 10th Weekly Update: Inventory up 0.5% Week-over-week, Up 28.3% Year-over-year

“Nobody Knows Anything,” Wall Street Strategist Edition

Housing March 3rd Weekly Update: Inventory down 0.1% Week-over-week, Up 28.3% Year-over-year

Housing Feb 3rd Weekly Update: Inventory Down 0.3% Week-over-week, Up 27.7% Year-over-year

Housing January 9th Weekly Update: Inventory Decreased 4% Week-over-week

Envestnet Explores Sale of Data Aggregator Yodlee

Housing August 19th Weekly Update: Inventory up 0.8% Week-over-week, Up 40.4% Year-over-year

Housing Oct 21st Weekly Update: Inventory Up 1.0% Week-over-week, Up 33.4% Year-over-year

Housing April 17th Weekly Update: Inventory Decreased 1.3% Week-over-week

Fed January SLOOS Survey: Banks reported Weaker Demand for Residential Real Estate

Housing June 10th Weekly Update: Inventory up 1.1% Week-over-week, Up 37.8% Year-over-year

Interest Payments Are An Increasingly Large Part Of The US Budget Deficit

Housing August 5th Weekly Update: Inventory up 1.0% Week-over-week, Up 39.9% Year-over-year

Housing June 12th Weekly Update: Inventory Increased 1.5% Week-over-week

Housing May 15th Weekly Update: Inventory Increased 0.2% Week-over-week

Housing May 13th Weekly Update: Inventory up 1.6% Week-over-week, Up 35.0% Year-over-year

Housing Feb 10th Weekly Update: Inventory Down 0.4% Week-over-week, Up 27.8% Year-over-year

Housing May 20th Weekly Update: Inventory up 1.7% Week-over-week, Up 36.0% Year-over-year

Housing May 1st Weekly Update: Inventory Increased 2.0% Week-over-week

Housing April 10th Weekly Update: Inventory Increased 0.2% Week-over-week

Housing Sept 30th Weekly Update: Inventory up 0.8% Week-over-week, Up 36.7% Year-over-year

Housing January 2nd Weekly Update: Inventory Decreased 3.4% Week-over-week

Housing July 3rd Weekly Update: Inventory Increased 1.3% Week-over-week; Down Year-over-year

Mindy Diamond on Independence: Jack Peterson on Summit Trail's Blockbuster Breakaway

Housing Oct 14th Weekly Update: Inventory Down 0.3% Week-over-week, Up 34.0% Year-over-year

Morgan Stanley Pays $35M SEC Fine Over Data Security

Housing Nov 25th Weekly Update: Inventory down 0.4% Week-over-week, Up 27.1% Year-over-year

Housing January 16th Weekly Update: Inventory Increased 0.3% Week-over-week

Housing March 6th Weekly Update: Inventory Decreased 2.6% Week-over-week

Housing June 24th Weekly Update: Inventory up 2.2% Week-over-week, Up 37.7% Year-over-year

Housing Oct 7th Weekly Update: Inventory up 0.4% Week-over-week, Up 36.7% Year-over-year

Housing January 30th Weekly Update: Inventory Decreased 1.4% Week-over-week

Housing January 23rd Weekly Update: Inventory Decreased Slightly Week-over-week

Housing May 6th Weekly Update: Inventory up 0.6% Week-over-week, Up 33.1% Year-over-year

Housing April 3rd Weekly Update: Inventory Decreased 0.8% Week-over-week

Housing June 5th Weekly Update: Inventory Increased 0.7% Week-over-week

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