Calculated Risk

JANUARY 26, 2024

The sharp decline in 2006 was due to the so-called "Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act of 2005". This graph shows the business and non-business bankruptcy filings by calendar year since 1997. 2023 was the 3rd lowest year for bankruptcy filings, and 42% below the pre-pandemic level in 2019.

Economy 131

Economy 131

Meb Faber Research

DECEMBER 6, 2023

Gavekal started as an independent research firm and evolved in 2005 to include fund management and in 2008 to include data analysis services.

Marketing 93

Marketing Marketing Management Investing 93

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 15, 2024

In a 2005 post , I included a graph of household mortgage debt as a percent of GDP. First, from February 2005 (19 years ago!): The bottom line remains the same: There will not be cascading price declines in this cycle due to distressed sales. Several readers asked if I could update the graph.

Economy 62

Economy Sales 62

The Big Picture

JANUARY 20, 2023

Breakaway : For only the 25 th time since World War II (an average of once every 3 1/2 years), the Dow Jones Industrials registered what technician Walter Deemer calls “breakaway momentum” (or “breadth thrust”).

Retail 283

Retail Economics Banking Marketing 283

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 29, 2022

Professor Jeremy Siegel at the University of Pennsylvania, where he is frequently voted Best professor at Wharton, and is the author of Stocks for the Long Run , Jeremy Schwartz is CIO at Wisdom Tree Asset Management , where he has worked since May 2005.

Assets 283

Assets Financial Market Investing Investments 283

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 8, 2023

The sharp decline in 2006 was due to the so-called "Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act of 2005". (a This graph shows the business and non-business bankruptcy filings by calendar year since 1997. a good example of Orwellian named legislation since this was more a "Lender Protection Act").

138

138

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 30, 2022

Starting in January 2005, I was very bearish on housing , but I wasn’t sure when the market would turn. However, the increase in inventory in late 2005 (see red arrow on graph) helped me call the top for house prices in 2006.Several Here are a few times when watching existing home inventory helped my analysis.

Economics 104

Economics Sales Marketing Marketing 104

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 7, 2022

Lose the News (June 2005). Eventually, that program became ABC’s Nightline, which Koppel hosted until November 2005. Re-Engineer Your Media Diet (February 2, 2017). More Signal, Less Noise (October 25, 2013). The Price of Paying Attention (November 2012). Who Do You Trust? January 2008). Manage Your Media Diet. __.

Financial Advice 275

Financial Advice Media Engineering Advertising 275

Calculated Risk

MARCH 1, 2024

For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (1% of portfolio), 2.44% are seriously delinquent (down from 2.53%). Mortgages in forbearance are being counted as delinquent in this monthly report but are not reported to the credit bureaus.

Portfolio 76

Portfolio 76

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 8, 2022

This led to a huge surge in inventory starting in late 2005. and some speculators might be forced to sell, but it is unlikely we will see a huge surge in inventory like in late-2005. Now most homeowners have substantial equity, and fixed rate loans with low interest rates.

104

104

NAIFA Advisor Today

DECEMBER 20, 2023

Richardson is a financial planner who has been providing sound financial advice to his clients since 2005. His primary focus is to help people align their financial decisions with their values and truths to live enriching lives.

Financial Services 52

Financial Services Financial Planner Retirement Planning Financial Advice 52

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 22, 2022

Before joining Morningstar in 2005, Norton was an economist with the Bureau of Labor Statistics and a research analyst at LECG LLC. The firm manages or advises on about $250 billion in advisor assets. Norton’s responsibilities include equity, alternative and fixed income research, asset allocation, and portfolio management.

Management 218

Management Investing Investments Portfolio Management 218

Advisor Perspectives

JANUARY 4, 2023

The moving average for the per-capita Light Vehicle Sales series peaked in 2005. Over fifteen years later, it is now down 22% from that peak.

Sales 72

Sales 72

Nerd's Eye View

MARCH 19, 2024

What's unique about Meredith, though, is how she was able to keep her firm open, navigating through and ultimately growing to more than $1M of annual revenue, despite a diagnosis in 2005 of a 7cm Glioblastoma tumor in her brain, resulting in several years of major surgeries, radiation treatments, and chemotherapies, all the while continuing to see (..)

Financial Advisor 177

Financial Advisor Recruitment Clients Assets 177

Calculated Risk

MARCH 20, 2023

It is possible the Median House Price will be Down YoY in February A brief excerpt: Back in 2005, a real estate agent asked me if I thought house prices would “rust or bust”. My answer in 2005 was “bust”! Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: House Prices: Rust or Bust?

Sales 52

Sales 52

Advisor Perspectives

APRIL 10, 2023

The moving average for the per-capita light vehicle sales series peaked in 2005. Over 15 years later, it is down 18.6% from that peak.

Sales 59

Sales 59

Advisor Perspectives

MARCH 3, 2023

The moving average for the per-capita light vehicle sales series peaked in 2005. Over 15 years later, it is down 20% from that peak.

Sales 59

Sales 59

The Big Picture

AUGUST 20, 2022

The founder and CEO of Hermitage Capital Management, which was the investment adviser to the largest foreign investment fund in Russia until 2005, Browder is also the author of “ Red Notice: A True Story of High Finance, Murder and One Man’s Fight for Justice.”

Government 275

Government Assets Media Investing 275

Advisor Perspectives

FEBRUARY 3, 2023

The moving average for the per-capita light vehicle sales series peaked in 2005. Over 15 years later, it is down 23% from that peak.

Sales 52

Sales 52

MarketWatch

MARCH 23, 2023

The current-account deficit as a share of GDP peaked in 2005 at 6.3%. The current account reveals if a country is a net lender or debtor. The current account deficit was equal to 3.2% of GDP in the fourth quarter, down from 3.4% in the prior quarter. Market Pulse Stories are Rapid-fire, short news bursts on stocks and markets as they move.

Accounting 75

Accounting Marketing Marketing 75

Advisor Perspectives

NOVEMBER 8, 2022

The moving average for the per-capita Light Vehicle Sales series peaked in 2005. Over fifteen years later, it is now down 23% from that peak.

Sales 52

Sales 52

Advisor Perspectives

JANUARY 25, 2023

Formed in 2005 to serve educational and resource needs of professional business advisors, the Exit Planning Institute is a trendsetter in the field of exit planning for business owners across the globe.

Planning 52

Planning Clients Education 52

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 22, 2023

The following scatter graph is for the years 2005 through 2022 and compares October retail hiring with the real increase (inflation adjusted) for retail sales (Q4 over previous Q4). Note that in the early '90s, retailers started hiring seasonal workers earlier - and the trend towards hiring earlier has continued.

Retail 70

Retail Sales 70

Calculated Risk

MARCH 23, 2023

The following graph shows new home sales for three periods: 1978-1982, 2005-2020, and current (red). I included the following graph to illustrate this point. The prior peak in sales is set to 100 ( updated through the February New Home sales release ).

Sales 57

Sales 57

The Big Picture

JULY 20, 2022

The best-known attempt has been that of Elisabeth Kübler-Ross, a Swiss psychiatrist, in her 1969 book On Death and Dying and in her later book, On Grief and Grieving (2005). Or at least no one has done so convincingly. Commentary ).

Numbers 265

Numbers Planning Investing Investments 265

Calculated Risk

JUNE 19, 2023

Here is an updated graph from the previous posts showing new home sales from the Census Bureau for four periods: 1978-1982, 1989 -1993, 2005-2020, and current (red). The prior peak in sales is set to 100 ( updated through the April New Home sales release ).

Sales 52

Sales Numbers Marketing Marketing 52

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 18, 2022

Black and light Purple are the maximum sales per month during the bubble (2005) and the minimum sales during the bust (2008 - 2011). The third graph shows existing home sales for each month, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), for a few selected periods. The most recent four years are shown (2019 through 2022). Sales NSA in July (453,000) were 22.4%

Sales 98

Sales Marketing Marketing 98

Calculated Risk

MARCH 26, 2023

I used to track this quarterly back in 2005 and 2006 to point out that households were taking on excessive financial obligations. The Fed's Household Debt Service ratio through Q4 2022 was released last week: Household Debt Service and Financial Obligations Ratios.

Numbers 97

Numbers 97

NAIFA Advisor Today

OCTOBER 18, 2022

He was elected to the NAIFA Board of Trustees in 2005 and has served as trustee liaison to the CEO Outreach Program, the Young Advisor Team , and the Corporate Partnerships Program. Miller, a loyal member since 1983, was NAIFA’s national President for the 2011-2012 term.

Financial Services 52

Financial Services Insurance Government 52

MarketWatch

JUNE 22, 2023

The current-account deficit as a share of GDP peaked in 2005 at 6.3%. The current account reveals if a country is a net lender or borrower. The current account deficit was equal to 3.3% of GDP in the fourth quarter, little changed from the prior quarter. Visit MarketWatch.com for more information on this news.

Accounting 40

Accounting Marketing Marketing 40

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Change in Payroll Jobs per Year (000s) Total, Nonfarm Private Public 1997 3,406 3,211 195 1998 3,048 2,735 313 1999 3,181 2,720 461 2000 1,938 1,674 264 2001 -1,733 -2,284 551 2002 -515 -748 233 2003 125 167 -42 2004 2,038 1,891 147 2005 2,528 2,342 186 2006 2,092 1,883 209 2007 1,145 857 288 2008 -3,549 -3,729 180 2009 -5,041 -4,967 -74 2010 1,027 (..)

Economy 117

Economy Manufacturing Economics Sales 117

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 14, 2023

For most of Human history, when a technologically advanced civilization encounters a vastly technologically society, it usually means extinction for those with inferior tools and weapons.

Investing 283

Investing Investments Management Insurance 283

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 23, 2022

The following scatter graph is for the years 2005 through 2021 and compares October retail hiring with the real increase (inflation adjusted) for retail sales (Q4 over previous Q4). Note that in the early '90s, retailers started hiring seasonal workers earlier - and the trend towards hiring earlier has continued.

Retail 69

Retail Sales 69

The Big Picture

AUGUST 8, 2023

60 Years of Uncertainty Hites Ahir, Nicholas Bloom, Davide Furceri IMF, March 2020 _ 1.

Distribution 246

Distribution Economics Communication Media 246

Steve Sanduski

AUGUST 22, 2023

John Furey and I discuss: John’s thoughts on the 2005-2010 “breakaway movement” that created so many new RIAs versus where the industry is today. The conversations that Advisor Growth and its members have sparked and the problems they are trying to solve.

Strategic Planning 52

Strategic Planning Valuation Investment Advisor Communication 52

Trade Brains

DECEMBER 10, 2023

DOMS Industries IPO Review : Doms, formerly known as Writefine Products is a relatively new brand established in 2005. DOMS Industries IPO Review – A Brief History Although the brand Doms was established only in 2005, its routes go nearly 4 decades back. Rasiklal worked in a Pencil Factory way back in the 1970s.

Manufacturing 59

Manufacturing Sales Distribution Management 59

Validea

OCTOBER 5, 2022

Year End Date Negative Earner Percentage 12/30/2005 1.1% Year End Date Negative Earner Percentage 12/30/2005 30.3% As you can see in the chart below, if we look at just large-cap stocks, there is still an increase, but it is much less pronounced. 12/29/2006 1.2% 12/31/2007 1.0% 12/31/2008 2.1% 12/31/2009 4.9% 12/31/2010 1.4%

CFP 59

CFP Valuation Economy Assets 59